hankyoreh

June 20. (Yonhap News)

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer and Lee Yoo-jin, staff reporter

The Japanese government announced the results of its investigation into the Kono Statement on June 20, stating that South Korea and Japan had held deliberations about documents during the drafting of the statement. The report is likely to make it even more difficult for Seoul and Tokyo to repair their relations.

Japan did not completely deny or revise the Kono Statement. In fact, on the same day Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga reaffirmed the Japanese government’s intention to abide by the statement. “Nothing has changed about the Japanese government’s position that it will not revise the Kono Statement,” Suga said.

Nevertheless, the Japanese government’s review results suggest that a political deal with South Korea was behind Japan’s acknowledgement in the statement that the comfort women had been forcibly recruited to serve as sexual slaves, undermining the statement’s credibility. South Korea is unlikely to passively watch as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tries to dilute the sincerity of historical issues in this way.

Considering that the government review results were announced amid ongoing US calls for an improvement in ties between South Korea and Japan, the announcement is expected to have a distinct impact. The US has shown considerable interest in repairing relations between Seoul and Tokyo. At the Hague at the end of March, the US managed to convince the Japanese and South Korean leaders to participate in a trilateral summit.

Since that time, talks have continued through a deliberative framework that allows high-level diplomats from South Korea and Japan to discuss the comfort women issue. In addition, movement toward cooperation is also becoming more tangible in regard to the issue of security, with the three countries agreeing about the need to share information to respond to the North Korean nuclear and missile threats.

The release of the review results is likely to put a damper on these strategic maneuverings. The South Korean government probably will not immediately discontinue the framework for diplomatic dialogue - which was established with such difficulty - or the military information-sharing consultations between the three countries.

For one thing, the meetings, which have already been held twice, are the only diplomatic option for South Korea and Japan to address the issue of the comfort women. Furthermore, there are no changes in the basic position of separating discussions of pressing security issues from Dokdo and other historical issues.

But with the Japanese investigation results effectively casting doubt on its acknowledgement of the compulsory nature of the comfort women’s recruitment, skepticism is expected to increase about how effective the high-level diplomatic talks to resolve the issue of the comfort women will really be. If anything, concerns that South Korea may give in to the Japanese request during the talks to address all current issues affecting Korea-Japan relations, including the question of Dokdo, are likely to gain strength.

It is also very likely that discussions about signing the MOU about sharing military information between Korea, the US, and Japan will be delayed for the time being. “There are no changes to our position that we will proceed transparently while keeping an eye on circumstances, including public opinion,” said a military official on condition of anonymity.

Depending on how the South Korean government responds to the report, the way in which South Korea-Japan relations unfold in regard to the comfort women will probably have a considerable impact on the international order, including the situation in Northeast Asia.

Of particular interest is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to South Korea, scheduled to occur on July 3. Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, South Korea and China have maintained a sort of historical solidarity based on their similar experiences with Japanese imperialism.

It is highly probable that this summit will further reinforce the historical solidarity forming between the two countries. In fact, during a regular press briefing on June 20, Hua Chunying, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, issued a warning in response to the Japanese announcement of its review of the Kono Statement. “Any attempt to overturn the verdict on Japan's history of invasion will be spurned by the public,” Hua said.

In this case, there could be a major disruption in US plans for security cooperation between South Korea, the US, and Japan. “The report released by Japan is stronger than expected, since it basically goes half of the way to denying the compulsory nature of the recruitment of the comfort women. This will have an effect not only on South Korea-Japan ties but also on the strategic structure of the US, which wants security cooperation between Korea, the US, and Japan to counter China,” said Yang Gi-ho, professor at Sungkonghoe University.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]