Joseph Nye says the American Century is not over

Posted on : 2014-12-11 16:26 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Famous coiner of the term “soft power”, prominent Harvard Professor says China can’t yet challenge the US for creativity or attractiveness

On Dec. 10 at the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies in Seoul, Prof. Joseph Nye, political scientist, author, and Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, gave a lecture titled, “Is the American Century Over?”

His answer: no.

Given China’s recent economic growth and massive population, 2014 saw both academic and popular predictions that world politics are moving towards an era where China, not the US, will be the dominant player. Such predictions portray the US as being in an irreversible decline. Citing history, Nye cautioned against such projections.

“[Great Britain’s success in the 19th century after losing all its North American colonies] is an example to us to be very careful not to think that when you see something going in one direction that it‘s going to go in that direction forever,” he said.

Nye addressed an audience of roughly 1,000 about the rising concern in international politics that China will push the US aside as the world’s leading superpower. His lecture covered why the declining US economy isn’t a problem, and why the growing Chinese economy isn’t a threat. A Q&A session with Korea University Professor Kim Byung-Kook followed Nye’s lecture.

Furthermore, the popular belief that the US is in decline does not reflect reality. “The attitudes measured by public opinion polls are telling you something about people’s mentalities, they‘re not telling you anything about geo-political realities.”

The reality, Nye says, is not that the US is in an “absolute” decline, but a “relative” one.

“It’s not that United States is losing a lot or in an absolute decline, but it‘s that other countries are achieving more, and that is partly as a result of American policy.” Nye does not see the United State’s “relative” decline as a problem. “You can call it relative decline, but you can also call it the rise of the rest.”

Nye is not worried about a declining US. He’s also not worried about a dominant China, for three reasons: lack of economic sophistication, inability to perform as a global military power, and its unwillingness to increase, what Nye calls, its “soft power,” or international attractiveness.

Despite figures supporting China’s eco-political upper hand, such as the country’s 1.3 billion people to the United State’s 316 million, or it’s 7.7% economic growth rate to the US’s 2%, Nye says such statistics don’t paint an accurate picture. China doesn’t have US’s body of allies. It doesn’t have per-capita income on par with the US. Regarding trade, it has labor value, but lacks the high value components of the US (think IPhone). In short, China’s economy is unsophisticated.

“China has made enormous progress, but don’t let the size of the economy mistake the fact that in overall economic power much of the economic power comes from having a sophisticated economy, not just a large economy. In that sense, we should be careful about economic power to use both measures- both size and sophistication as we judge economic power.”

 

Chinese military power far behind the US

Regarding military power, Nye asserts that because of its geographic location, neighboring countries, and dependence on Middle Eastern oil, China’s military may develop regionally but will not pose a threat to the US mainland. “As a global military power, China will still be a long distance behind the United States, even as it increases some of its capabilities in the regional domain.”

“Soft power” is a term coined by Nye that refers to the a country’s ability to make others want what it wants without using hard power measures such as coercion or payment. A country’s soft power relies on its culture and foreign policies. The third reason why Nye is not worried about China surpassing the US as a global power is that China has been unable to implement soft power strategies.

“There are really two limits on China’s ability to increase its soft power, despite the billions of dollars that it is investing in this effort. One is the unwillingness of the Chinese Communist Party to unleash the talents of Chinese civil society.” Here, Nye mentioned universities, the film industry, and heterogeneous creativity- components of soft power that the US has developed far beyond those of China, in part due to its openness to immigration. He continued, “The other problem China has in increasing its soft power is nationalism and its territorial disputes with its neighbors.”

Those neighbors - Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea, and others - keep China in check and help balance power in Asia, another factor that keeps China from pulling ahead of the US as the next world super power.

 

A conflict between one rising and one declining power?

 

But does it matter to anyone other than academics and politicians whether China or the US is the world’s leading super power?

Nye finds his answer in history. “It does matter because if people think that one country is rising and another is in decline, there’s a fair history that this can lead to policies which are dangerous and can be a prelude to conflict.”

In ancient Greece, Sparta feared that Athens was becoming too powerful. This led to the Peloponnesian war and the downfall of the Greek city-state system. Similarly, Nye says that an ill-founded fear of China in the US could lead to political decisions that put the country in danger. The worst decision the US can make is to close its doors to immigrants. Losing its immigrants means losing the support and creativity (soft power) they bring to the US.

“Americans always complain about immigration, but fortunately we can’t do anything about it.”

Nye’s message to the US and its supporters is not to worry. The American century is not over. He concluded optimistically.

“If my analysis is correct, China is not about to pass the United States. That means there’s more time to manage the relationship, less reason to succumb to fear, and that we can focus more on the positive sub-aspects of this relationship rather than let it deteriorate into a zero-sum situation.”

 

By Dan Sizer, Hankyoreh English intern

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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