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The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) victory in Japan’s House of Representatives elections on Dec. 14 looks poised to have a major impact on relations between Seoul and Tokyo.

A dramatic improvement in ties is now looking more unlikely, with the LDP win signaling a continuation of the administration’s “no concessions” policy on the issue of so-called “comfort women” drafted into sexual slavery during the first half of the 20th century. Indeed, some are predicting the rift could only deepen if the Shinzo Abe administration releases its own statement next year repudiating a 1993 the Kono Statement by then-Chief Cabinet Secretary Yohei Kono acknowledging the forcible nature of the women’s mobilization and the military’s involvement in it.

During its campaign, the LDP issued a 26-page platform in which it discussed “improving relations with China, South Korea, and Russia while further strengthening cooperation with the US and Australia.” The reference drew attention for lumping South Korea together with China and Russia - two countries in conflict with Japan - rather with allies like the US.

For now, Tokyo appears set to take its first step in improving ties with South Korea by promoting bilateral talks on the comfort women and other issues at the department director level, as agreed upon by Abe and President Park Geun-hye in Beijing in November.

Historical issues, including the comfort women, remain a potential source of friction. The LDP platform pledged to “sternly rebut unwarranted denunciations based in falsehood and act to restore Japan‘s reputation and interests.” To many observers, this signals a continued public relations push against the international community’s perceptions of the comfort women as sex slaves. If so, it would mean a more or less inevitable showdown with Seoul on the international stage.

A new “Abe statement,” which some are predicting could be issued around next August for the 70th anniversary of Japan’s World War II defeat and the 50th anniversary of the establishment of relations with South Korea, may prove a watershed in bilateral relations. Abe’s confidant Koichi Hagiuda, a special aide to the LDP governor, hinted at the potential fate of the Kono Statement in remarks made last October.

“We think that the statement’s role has ended, and we need to take out the bones,” Hagiuda said at the time, suggesting the statement’s content may be gutted. If the Abe administration does issue a new statement overturning the Kono Statement and the 1995 Murayama Statement acknowledging Japan’s past aggressions and colonization, relations with Seoul could be in for a long cold spell.

Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama urged Abe to work to repair ties with South Korea at a Nov. 16 meeting in Brisbane, Kyodo News agency reported on Dec. 13. If Abe does work to improve ties with its neighbors under pressure from the US and international community, the possibility remains alive for some improvements in relations with Seoul.

By Gil Yun-hyung, Tokyo correspondent

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