[News analysis] What’s behind China and Japan’s diplomatic rapprochement?

Posted on : 2015-04-24 15:35 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Beijing and Tokyo have just held their second summit in five months, after being deadlocked over territorial and historical issues
 the 60th anniversary of the Bandung Conference
the 60th anniversary of the Bandung Conference

Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a clear message of Beijing’s desire to improve relations with Tokyo at a surprise summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Indonesia on the evening of Apr. 22, their second in five months.

Many are now turning their attention to possible reasons for the diplomatic shift by China, which had previously been at loggerheads with Japan over historical issues and sovereignty over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands.

Relations between Beijing and Tokyo took a sharp turn for the worse after a clash between a Chinese fishing trawler and two Japanese patrol boats near the Senkaku Islands in Sept. 2010. Since then, China has been consistently demanding that Japan recognize the territorial dispute over the islands, and that Abe refrain from future visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, where Class A Japanese war criminals are enshrined.

The first demand was more or less resolved in November when the two leaders agreed upon four points at a meeting in Beijing. In particular, they agreed on the “understanding that differences of opinion exist on the tensions that have recently arisen in the waters of the South China Sea, including the Senkaku Islands.” Despite the different interpretations, Beijing was able to win over public sentiment at home with the claim that Japan had “acceded” to its demands.

Abe, for his part, has avoided visits to the shrine since Dec. 2013, and adopted measures to prevent visits by his Cabinet members on Apr. 22, the date of the summit.

With the diplomatic preparations carried out over the long term, the key issue motivating the summit was the question of whether key phrases from 1995 Murayama Statement - including references to “deep remorse and heartfelt apology for [Japan’s] colonial rule and aggression” - would be included in a statement by Abe to be delivered this August. The “colonial rule” is generally seen as referring to South Korea, the “aggression” to China.

Abe’s speech for the 60th anniversary of the Bandung Conference on Apr. 22, which amounted to a preview of the August statement, made no reference to “colonial rule.” But the topic of “aggression” was alluded to twice in passages citing the ten principles agreed upon at the inaugural Bandung Conference in 1955.

Japanese news media suggested Xi likely agreed to make the decision to accept Abe’s proposal for talks out of recognition of the subtle “consideration” Japan had extended to China.

“Relations between our two countries have improved to some extent,” Xi was quoted as saying at the meeting.

A similar mood was visible in the Chinese media. An Apr. 23 article in the Ta Kung Pao newspaper observed that Beijing “appears to be turning its attention over to future exchange and cooperation rather than pointing to Japan’s responsibility [for historical actions and territorial issues], which has been the cause for the slide in China-Japan relations over the fast several years.”

Shi Yinhong, a professor at China’s Renmin University, told China Daily on Apr. 23 that the meeting was a “signal that the antagonisms between China and Japan have abated.”

A more practical consideration in Xi’s decision to agree to the summit may have been China’s desire to convince Japan to participate in its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) framework. Indeed, Xi proposed a role in AIIB for Japan during the talks, noting that the bank “is being welcomed by the international community.”

The strategy ultimately adopted by the two leaders was one of acknowledging differences and seeking commonalities: keeping relations on a stable footing rather than risking further souring, and seeking out practical gains for both sides. But the potential for conflict remains.

“It does look as though China-Japan relations will be moving in a more positive direction [after the summit],” said Lian Degui, a researcher at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. “But China is still watching closely to see what Prime Minister Abe says in his August statement.”

By Seong Yeon-cheol and Gil Yun-hyung, Beijing and Tokyo correspondents

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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