hankyoreh

Chinese ICBM

During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union were in a state of strategic stability based on mutually assured destruction. This doctrine relies on the mutual understanding that the prospect of retaliation would deter each side from striking first. This doctrine is still a reality created by nuclear weapons in the 21st century. However, missile defense systems could undermine such stability. That’s because if either side thought it could neutralize a retaliatory response, the temptation to attack first could be greater.

The potential deployment of THAAD radar on the Korean peninsula is related to this sensitive issue. MIT professor Theodore Postol and George Lewis, a visiting scholar at Cornell University highlighted this point in the interview with The Hankyoreh.

Two scholars are concerned that the potential deployment of this radar in South Korea could aggravate mutual suspicions between the US and China.

China is concerned that the radar is could be integrated into the US Ground-Based Missile Defense system, the two scholars said. That is because this radar could transmit the motion data of their rocket upper stages to Upgraded Early Warning radars at Clear Air Force Station in Alaska after tracking them in the area flying north of South Korea. Also, China is concerned about the US’s preoccupation with the development of its missile defense systems, even though those systems are limited.

On the other side, the US could not fully be confident that this radar will be capable of carrying out the tracking function, the two scholars said. That is because China could implement countermeasures to avoid being tracked by this radar. For example, China could hamper the ability of AN/TPY-2 radar to obtain precision tracking data on the upper stage, by modifying the flight characteristics of the ICBMs so that they do not drop the shroud during the powered flight phase and then orienting the upper stage so that the shroud is pointed in the general direction of the radar, they explained. Such countermeasures could make the radar cross-section of the Chinese ICBMs much smaller, which means that the detectable range of the radar could be much shorter.

If the mutual suspicion of either side is aggravated, the two countries could take risky actions to neutralize either side’s potential threats. While China would be tempted to expand the size of their ICBM force to secure their retaliatory capabilities, the US would continue to make efforts to enhance by investing money to improve the radar’s capabilities or by deploying additional radars in the region, including in South Korea.

By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

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