hankyoreh

Jin Jingyi

Because of its unique geopolitical situation, Korea has always been forced to make choices in its foreign relationships, from ancient times until the present day.

Since being brought into a tributary relationship with China during the middle of the Tang Dynasty, Korea has had to choose between the dynasty that was in decline and the dynasty that was on the rise every time there was a dynastic change in China. When power in China was shifting from the Yuan to the Ming, the Goryeo Dynasty in Korea was split between pro-Yuan and pro-Ming factions.

The result was the momentous historical incident of the Goryeo Dynasty’s invasion of the Liaodong Peninsula and General Yi Songgye’s subsequent retreat from Wihwa Island. Yi went on to topple the Goryeo Dynasty and establish the Joseon Dynasty.

Korea once again stood at the crossroads during the transition of power from the Ming Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty. When King Gwanghaegun chose to remain neutral in that struggle, he was driven out in a coup and replaced by King Injo. But Injo’s policy of supporting the Ming and rejecting the Qing resulted in two consecutive Manchu invasions. As a result, the Korean peninsula was once again brought into the Chinese dynastic system.

In more recent history, when Korea was integrated into the global system, it was compelled to make new choices between the great powers. This also explains the appearance of the adversary-partner model and the divide-and-conquer.

When Russia became the main adversary, Korea decided to work with China, Japan, and the US; when Japan became a threat, its strategy was to move away from Japan and closer to Russia. But none of these partners were able to change Korea’s geopolitical destiny.

At the end of World War II, the Korea peninsula was divided between the US and the Soviet Union, and North and South Korea were forced to regard each other as adversaries and the US and Soviet Union as partners. The results were the Korean War and the Cold War.

Looking back at history from ancient times until modern times, the choices that Korea has been compelled to make have always been either-or choices. This is because Korea has been in zero-sum relationships with the countries it has been choosing between.

The alliance with the US that South Korea chose during the Cold War was one of these either-or choices. South Korea was in an adversarial relationship not only with North Korea but also with the Soviet Union and China. This was an obvious choice in a zero-sum time when there was no doubt about friend and foe.

The end of the Cold War gave South Korea room to make a new choice. This can be seen as the choice that comes every time there is a shift in the world order.

South Korea has improved its relations with China and Russia, the adversaries who had been the targets of its alliance with the US. This resulted in the dissolution of the “trilateral alliance in the North”.

But on the Korean Peninsula, the Cold War continues in the form of the “trilateral alliance of the South” against North Korea. This is likely what is propping up South Korea’s alliance with the US.

But with these dynamic relationships in flux, South Korea faces a choice once again. This is the choice between the US and China.

With the rapid rise of China, the US has taken steps to check China, announcing the Asian rebalance. The axis of this pivot is the US alliance with Japan. The US also wants its alliance with South Korea to play the same role.

South Korea’s relationship with China has developed to an unprecedented extent. There are probably few people who think that South Korea‘s alliance with the US will regress to what it was during the Cold War.

So what makes it so hard for South Korea to choose between the US and China? Perhaps it is because the strategic aims of South Korea in its alliance with the US are no longer the same as those of the US.

If the US in its efforts to check China assumes that the role of the US-ROK alliance is the same as during the Cold War period, South Korea will be compelled to choose between the US and China.

During South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s visit to the US, US President Barack Obama expressed his hope that South Korea will be a partner on the issue of the South China Sea. This puts South Korea in a dilemma.

Park already had a tough decision to make about attending China‘s military review marking [the 70th anniversary of] the end of World War II. In the end, this dilemma has to do with the limits of the [US-ROK] alliance.

During the joint press conference with President Obama, President Park in fact said that South Korea plays a “central role in America’s rebalance to the Asia Pacific.”

The Chinese press translated this as South Korea being a “central pillar,” suggesting that the Chinese take Park‘s remarks as being diplomatic rhetoric rather than an actual intention to participate in the US strategy of containing China.

But viewed from another perspective, it is probably the case that the problems caused by the division of the Korean Peninsula are ultimately reinforcing the US strategy of the rebalance to the Asia Pacific.

Looking back at the decisions Korea has made throughout its history, there have been numerous compulsory choices in which Korea has been unable to decide its own fate.

But this time is different. The times have changed, and South Korea’s status has changed with them.

No matter what anyone says, right now Korea has the best chance it has ever had to decide its destiny for itself. South Korea must resist historical inertia and reject the self-imposed choice of entrusting its destiny to others.

By Jin Jingyi, professor at Peking University

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]