[Analysis] Trump administration considering redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons

Posted on : 2017-03-06 17:22 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Tactical nukes were removed from South Korea in 1991; possible redeployment could lead to spike in regional tensions
B61 nuclear bombs in storage
B61 nuclear bombs in storage

The US Donald Trump administration is reportedly considering the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, raising questions about the back story and the outcome of future discussions.

If US Forces Korea does reintroduce tactical nuclear weapons, the return will come 26 years after their removal. In Jan. 1958, USFK first confirmed deployment of the Honest John, a surface-to-surface rocket capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, and a 280-mm nuclear cannon. In the years after, it went on to introduce aerial nuclear weapons, a 155-mm nuclear cannon, and “backpack nukes.”

But as signs of an end to the Cold War became apparent in 1991, the tactical nuclear weapons were pulled from the peninsula as part of then-US President George H.W. Bush‘s nuclear disarmament plan.

According to figures from the US think tank Federation of American Scientists, the US military possessed 500 B61 tactical nuclear weapons as of late 2016. The B61 can be dropped from a variety of aircraft, including the F-15, F-16, B-52, and B-2. The US has 150 of these B61 weapons deployed at six military bases in five countries - Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey - while the rest are kept at home.

Redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons with USFK has, along with independent nuclear armament, been a heavily emphasized theme from the ruling party and other South Korean conservatives. Their position holds that with Pyongyang less likely now to abandon its nuclear program after succeeding in advancing its capabilities with a series of nuclear tests, Seoul has no choice but to answer nukes with nukes.

But the calls for nuclear armament, including redeployment of USFK tactical nuclear weapons, are very likely to have serious repercussions for Northeast Asian security, upsetting China as well as North Korea. They could create a more untenable situation for Seoul’s relations with Beijing, which are already rocky over the THAAD deployment issue. They would also be in violation of the Joint South-North Denuclearization Declaration of 1991. Some now say that by abandoning that declaration, South Korea would be damaging its own legal and moral basis for demanding that the North give up its nuclear weapons.

In the past, Seoul has ruled out the possibility of demanding redeployment of USFK tactical nuclear weapons, insisting it would stick to the principle of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. The Obama administration was also against the idea of redeployment, arguing that it was capable of responding the North Korean nuclear and missile threat with expanded deterrence, including its nuclear umbrella.

When the existing policies of Seoul and Washington are factored in, the news that the Trump administration is considering redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons just a month or so after taking office certainly registers as a sharp change in stance - evidence of just how acutely it perceives North Korean nuclear weapons and missiles as a threat. Yet it remains unclear exactly how seriously the redeployment is being weighed. At present, it still appears to be just one various options being put on the table.

At the same time, the possibility of Trump actually going ahead with the redeployment cannot be ruled out. In January, he issued an executive order calling for the Defense Department to review and report on plans for boosting the US’s nuclear capabilities. As a believer in “peace through strength,” Trump could resort to redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons as a means of pressuring Pyongyang - and of pushing for a bigger role from Beijing on the nuclear issue.

If Washington does make a move in that direction, it is expected to ignite a debate among politicians in South Korea as well. Liberal candidates for the presidency, such as Moon Jae-in, Ahn Hee-jung, Ahn Cheol-soo, Lee Jae-myung are all opposed to the THAAD deployment. Conservatives Yoo Seong-min and Nam Kyung-pil are in favor.

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

 

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