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US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s East Asia trip schedule

The announcement that US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a summit in the US at the beginning of next month, following US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s tour of South Korea, China and Japan this week, suggests the approach of a critical juncture for issues on the Korean Peninsula, including the North Korean nuclear issue and the THAAD deployment.

The biggest and most sensitive issue during Tillerson‘s tour is expected to be THAAD. That’s why his visit to China (Mar. 18) is attracting more attention than his visit to Japan (Mar. 15), whose head of state has already met Trump, or to South Korea (Mar. 17), which is currently dealing with a power vacuum.

In connection with THAAD, Susan Thornton, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the State Department, was asked during a briefing at the Foreign Press Center on Mar. 13 whether the US would respect South Korea’s sovereignty if the next South Korean government changed its mind about the THAAD deployment. Thornton responded that the US would respect South Korea’s sovereignty but that the THAAD deployment was “an alliance decision” that “was made in consultation and jointly between the ROK and the United States.” “The THAAD deployment is not related to some political constellation or other consideration,” she said. This reconfirmed that the US would not retract its plans to deploy THAAD regardless of a change of power in the South Korean government.

During Tillerson’s visit, China is expected to make a strong case that the THAAD radar will weaken China’s nuclear deterrence and to accuse the US of having the long-term goal of encircling China with a missile defense system. Some in China are even suggesting that it’s no longer possible to block the THAAD deployment and that China should instead make a military response. On Mar. 13, Wang Hongguang, former deputy commander of the Nanjing military area command, suggested using signal interception and disruption to neutralize THAAD. “We’ll finish installing [countermeasures] before THAAD begins to operate. We already have such equipment, and we just need to move it to the appropriate location,” Wang said.

Reports also indicate that China is aware that resolving the North Korean nuclear issue will be necessary for them to weaken the rationale for deploying THAAD in South Korea. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi‘s proposal on Mar. 8 for a simultaneous suspension of North Korea’s nuclear weapon and missile programs and the South Korea-US joint military exercises can be seen as being part of such a strategy.

But just like the Obama administration, the basic position of the Trump administration is that THAAD is needed to serve as a shield and that China must put more pressure on North Korea to bring it to the negotiating table. The South Korean government has sympathized with this position as well.

During a meeting with Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi in the White House on Feb. 27, Trump reportedly put considerable pressure on China by suggesting that unless China took active steps to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, Japan would have no choice but to acquire nuclear weapons. During his trip, therefore, Tillerson is expected to put as much pressure on China as it can stand, even going so far as to mention the possibility of a secondary boycott, which would involve sanctioning companies in China and other countries that do business with North Korea.

At the same time, Thornton said during the briefing on Mar. 13 that “discussing the elements of any new approach would be an important part” of Tillerson’s trip. The White House announced that Trump discussed strategy for the tour that evening over dinner with Tillerson and National Security Advisor Herbert Raymond McMaster.

Trump and Xi Jinping are reportedly planning to hold a summit meeting in the US at the beginning of next month. Since this will be the two leaders’ first summit since Trump took office, it is expected to serve as a critical litmus test for bilateral relations during Trump‘s four-year term as president.

According to various diplomatic sources and articles in the foreign press on Mar. 13, Trump is planning to invite Xi to his deluxe Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, for a two-day summit on Apr. 6 and 7. Xi will reportedly head directly for Mar-a-Lago without stopping in Washington.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent, Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent and Kim Ki-eun, staff reporter

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