[News analysis] In US media interviews, Moon stresses that he has the same ideas as Trump

Posted on : 2017-06-22 14:44 KST Modified on : 2017-06-22 14:44 KST
Ahead of next week’s summit, Moon lays out plans to work toward denuclearization and improving inter-Korean relations
President Moon Jae-in’s interview with the Washington Post
President Moon Jae-in’s interview with the Washington Post

During interviews with US media prior to the South Korea-US summit next week, President Moon Jae-in laid out the details of his strategy for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue and for improving inter-Korean relations. While offering a two-stage process for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue that would first freeze and then dismantle the program, Moon has proposed working on North Korean denuclearization while simultaneously improving inter-Korean relations. He also mentioned “carrots” that could be offered if North Korea responds favorably, such as holding an inter-Korean summit and reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex. While repeatedly emphasizing the importance of cooperation with the US during this process, Moon suggested that he has the same idea as US President Donald Trump in regard to resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. The success of Moon’s plan is likely to depend on the upcoming South Korea-US summit and on North Korea’s subsequent reaction.

In interviews with CBS and the Washington Post on June 20, Moon proposed a two-stage solution to the North Korean nuclear issue that would first freeze North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs and then lead to the complete dismantlement of the North’s nuclear program. Phased-in denuclearization was the approach that was specified in the Sep. 19 Joint Statement (2005) and the Feb. 13 Agreement (2007), which were agreed on during the Six-Party Talks (aimed at solving the North Korean nuclear issue). At the time, this solution was divided into three stages: freezing, disabling and dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons.

For now, US President Donald Trump is likely to respond positively to Moon‘s two-stage solution to the North Korean nuclear issue. The Trump administration has no objection to the goal of denuclearization, and it believes that, on a practical level, a freeze would inevitably be part of that process. The Trump administration has publicly stated that North Korea must consent to the goal of denuclearization and take the appropriate corresponding actions toward this end before North Korea-US negotiations can begin.

“The important question is the specifics of how each stage will be set up,” said Korea National Strategy Institute director Kim Chang-soo. The problem is that North Korea is unlikely to willingly accede to a proposal for negotiations that begins with a freeze on its nuclear weapons and missile programs. In order to negotiate the North Korean nuclear program, said Kim Yeon-cheol, a professor at Inje University, “South Korea needs a specific opinion on what engagement will involve, including the timing and the means of shifting from pressure to engagement.”

Moon also disclosed a plan for simultaneously working on a solution to the North Korean nuclear issue and on improving inter-Korean relations. Especially noteworthy is the fact that he hinted that he hopes for an inter-Korean summit to be held within the year. The administrations of Lee Myung-bak (2008-13) and Park Geun-hye (2013-16) insisted that North Korea had to denuclearize before inter-Korean relations could improve. But since Moon has said he is willing to talk with North Korea provided that the “conditions” and “mood” are appropriate, some analysts think that he is still placing some conditions on dialogue. “Moon seems to think that it’s necessary to gradually shift toward a ‘simultaneous’ approach even as he maintains the ‘sequential’ approach given the domestic and international situation,” said Kim Yeon-cheol.

It’s unclear what Moon has in mind as a condition for dialogue with North Korea. The only remark he has made on the topic was when he said that “If the North halts further provocations with its nuclear weapons and missiles, we’re willing to engage in unconditional dialogue with the North” during his congratulatory address at an event marking the 17th anniversary of the June 15 Inter-Korean Joint Statement.

During his two interviews, Moon stressed what he had in common with President Trump. He has said on several occasions that “this engagement with North Korea is the same engagement that President Trump is talking about” and that “President Trump and I share the goals of the complete dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program and of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” He also said that he has “the same ideas as President Trump,” providing as specific examples their criticism of “strategic patience” (the North Korean policy of Barack Obama), resolving the North Korean nuclear issue through “pressure and engagement,” the possibility of dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and the goal of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. In addition, Moon mentioned South Korea taking a proactive leadership role in tackling the North Korean nuclear issue. Given Moon’s willingness to improve inter-Korean relations, this suggests that he will cautiously unveil his plan for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue even while giving as much consideration as possible to the US considering the weakened situation at home and abroad.

“The interview was generally innocuous. I got the feeling he was giving a little ground, but I think he succeeded at sending the message that South Korea and the US are on the same page,” said a North Korea expert in Washington when asked about Moon’s CBS interview.

By Kim Ji-eun and Jung In-hwan, staff reporters, and Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

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