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US President Donald Trump returns to the White House from a fundraiser for Republican gubernatorial candidates in South Carolina on Oct. 16 (UPI/Yonhap News)

During US President Donald Trump’s first tour of South Korea, China and Japan early next month, he is likely to focus on cooperation to put the “maximum pressure” on North Korea while also trying to extract as many concessions as possible in the area of trade to satisfy his domestic base.

In regards to North Korea and its nuclear program, the White House said in an Oct. 16 statement about Trump’s trip to Asia that Trump would “call on the international community to join together in maximizing pressure on North Korea” during his speech before South Korea’s National Assembly.

The US and Japan also announced that Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would be meeting families of people abducted by North Korea during Trump’s visit to Japan. “The issue of the abductions is one of the Japanese government’s greatest priorities. It’s extremely significant that the leaders of Japan and the US will be dealing with such an important matter,” said Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kotaro Nogami during the regular press briefing on Oct. 17. It’s likely that Abe will try to use this opportunity to maneuver Trump into making a hardline remark about North Korea.

For the duration of Trump’s visit to China, China will probably cooperate as much as possible with pressure against North Korea to shield itself against American pressure on trade and commerce, said an informed source in China. It is also expected that once the political situation inside China is stabilized following the Communist Party Congress, which is kicking off on Oct. 18, China will move in earnest to broker talks between North Korea and the US.

Given the overarching alignment and trends, convincing Trump to make remarks that go beyond pressure on North Korea and leave open the possibility of future negotiations will be a challenging task for the South Korean government, which has placed the greatest priority on cooperating with the US. But even a clear statement by Trump that he seeks to resolve the North Korean issue through peaceable means would take some of the pressure off South Korea, which has to manage tensions on the Korean Peninsula leading up to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.

In terms of trade, Trump is expected to turn the screws on South Korea, China and Japan. During a press conference following a meeting with US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Oct. 16, Trump said that an important economic summit was scheduled during his travels in Asia. This has led some analysts to wonder whether the chief objective of the Asia trip is not so much the North Korean nuclear issue as it is achieving Trump’s “America first” vision in the areas of trade and commerce.

Given these considerations, it’s possible that Trump will ask for major concessions in the automobile and steel sectors in the negotiations to revise the South Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) during his summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

The Trump administration has reportedly also asked China to substantially increase imports of US agricultural products and liquefied natural gas (LNG). He could also pressure China by threatening to have the US government activate Section 301 of the US Trade Act.

Japan’s Kyodo News also reported that US Vice President Mike Pence asked Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Taro Aso to initiate negotiations for a free trade agreement during the US-Japan Economic Dialogue, which was held in Washington on Oct. 16. Japan has been opposed to the idea of signing an FTA with the US because the US might ask it to liberalize its farming and livestock sector.

In addition, Trump is expected to use the North Korean threat as leverage to push South Korea and Japan to buy more US weapons.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent, Cho Ki-weon, Tokyo correspondent, and Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent

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