[Interview] Japanese strategist: North Korea remains preeminent issue on Trump’s trip to Asia

Posted on : 2017-11-14 16:50 KST Modified on : 2017-11-14 16:50 KST
Hitoshi Tanaka says that negotiations offer the only choice for resolving nuclear crisis
Hitoshi Tanaka
Hitoshi Tanaka

Hitoshi Tanaka, who was the leading strategist for Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and is today the chair of the Institute for International Strategy at the Japan Research Institute, identified North Korea as the preeminent issue in US President Donald Trump’s trip to Asia. “Just because we keep putting pressure on North Korea doesn’t mean we’ll reach a solution,” Tanaka said. “At some point, our only choice is to open the way for negotiations.”

Tanaka, who served as the Director-General of the Ministry’s Asian Oceanian Affairs Bureau and the Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, was instrumental in preparing the Pyongyang statement delivered by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi during his visit to North Korea in Sept. 2002. The Hankyoreh asked Tanaka about Trump’s trip to Asia in his office in Tokyo on Nov. 9.

Hankyoreh (Hani): How would you assess the results of President Trump’s visit to Japan?

Hitoshi Tanaka (Tanaka): It was successful in the sense that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe strengthened his ties with President Trump during their summit. Currently, there are no major problems in Japan-US bilateral relations, and their biggest challenge remains the North Korean issue. Prime Minister Abe said that this was a time to put more pressure on the North, and on this point he is on the same page with President Trump. The worrying thing is that they’re saying that now is not the time for dialogue, but the more pressure you apply, the more important communication becomes. The complete lack of communication makes it possible for the two sides to misunderstand each other’s intentions. While we were negotiating for over a year in 2002, I continued to maintain my lines of communication with the North Koreans.

Hani: There’s a strong sense in Japan that the South Korean government is too conciliatory on the North Korean issue. What policy do you think South Korea should adopt toward the North?

Tanaka: I think that the conciliatory stance that the South Korean government adopts in foreign affairs is liable to be misunderstood. But South Korea is a key player. It’s imperative for the South Korean government to have its own clear idea of the manner in which it wants to resolve this issue. Rather than making remarks to an external audience, the South Korean government needs to create an internal scenario [about a solution to the North Korean issue]. Since South Korea is the party most concerned, movement [on the North Korean issue] must be centered on South Korea.

Hani: Do you feel that the Trump administration’s North Korea policy has changed?

Tanaka: There is no consistent message in what President Trump says. But the most important message on this trip was when he said not to underestimate the US. The US is a country that nips national security threats in the bud. North Korea says that if it develops ICBMs and gains the ability to deliver a nuclear warhead, it will possess the greatest deterrent, but that’s not the case.

Hani: The part of the US-Japan summit that Japan was especially interested in was the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. Do you think that this strategy will be able to develop in the future?

Tanaka: There’s nothing wrong with the plan itself, but the possibility of it being realized depends on the US-China summit. As a realist, President Trump is someone who values deals. Ultimately, it’s possible that US-China relations will improve compared to their current state. The US has no choice but to get along with China on the level of security, as well. The Indo-Pacific strategy does mean countering China, but I don’t think that the US has made its final decision about whether it’s necessary to counter China.

By Cho Ki-weon, Tokyo correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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