[Interview] US-North Korean stalemate likely to continue, says Mansfield Foundation CEO

Posted on : 2017-11-14 16:53 KST Modified on : 2017-11-14 16:53 KST
Frank Jannuzi foresees little signs of progress in bringing Pyongyang to the negotiating table
Frank Jannuzi
Frank Jannuzi

Frank Jannuzi is the President and CEO of the Mansfield Foundation, a think tank in Washington, D.C. Prior to that, he served as the Deputy Executive Director of Amnesty International USA, where he worked to advance legislation and policies in order to promote universal human rights. In an e-mail interview with the Hankyoreh, Jannuzi discussed the outcomes of US President Donald Trump’s visit to Asia, and the prospects for finding a resolution to the North Korean nuclear crisis. “The US-North Korea stalemate is likely to continue,” he wrote. “It means that we have not found a way to find a breakthrough for a solution.”

Hankyoreh (Hani): I’d like to start with the overall question if you don’t mind. Do you think President Donald Trump succeeded in reassuring South Korea and Japan that United States is the reliable ally, and restoring the leadership of United States in Northeast Asia?

Frank Jannuzi (Jannuzi): Trump’s visits to Tokyo and Seoul provided reassurance that the US will be a reliable partner and will consult closely with both allies on DPRK policy. His talk to the National Assembly showed his understanding of the basic facts, and kept the door open for diplomacy. That said, his visit did not advance any specific policy goals on trade or security, and this lack of concrete deliverables means his trip may not have much long term impact.

Hani: President Trump received a favorable evaluation in that he tried to soften the tone in Japan, South Korea and China. I wonder whether you agree with this view.

Jannuzi : Trump’s tone was less harsh, but he offered few specifics about how he would advance US interests on the Peninsula. And Trump’s silence on human rights issues is a gift that China will not reciprocate. His failure to stand up for universal human rights in China and Philippines undercuts his attempt to hold the DPRK responsible for human rights violations.

Hani: President Trump pressed Japan on trade issues more strongly and openly than expected. President Trump “boasted” about the sales of arms to South Korea (it was the same in Japan) even though he restrained his rhetoric on cost-sharing for the US Army presence and trade issues in Korea. Do you think this “America First” might discredit the America’s leadership in this region?

Jannuzi: The President’s message on trade was weak; attacking TPP and KORUS while touting new bilateral trade deals that may never be negotiated. He failed to get relief from high Japanese tariffs on beef, and he naively celebrated arms sales that may not happen. Confusing arms sales - which should be based on security needs - with trade policy is a bad idea. Trump treated arms sales as a jobs issue rather than a national defense issue.

Hani: Do you think that President Trump’s travelling to South Korea, Japan, China might make be a stepping-stone for a breakthrough on the North Korean nuclear issue?

Jannuzi: Trump held the door open for talks, but offered no specifics and little encouragement to DPRK. We are likely to see continued stalemate.

Hani: President Trump said in the joint press conference with South Korean President Moon Jae-In that “I really believe that it makes sense for North Korea to come to the table and to make a deal that’s good for the people of North Korea and the people of the world…I do see certain movement [regarding dialogue]”. Do you see any signs that United States-North Korea are talking informally and making some progress?

Jannuzi: I see few signs of progress, although it is somewhat encouraging that DPRK has for several weeks refrained from new missile tests. I am afraid that period of restraint may soon end.

Hani: What do you think about President Trump’s speech in the South Korean National Assembly where he criticized the North Korean regime severely. Do you think it might have a negative effect on bringing the North Korea to the table?

Jannuzi: Trump’s tough talk was mostly factual, and not new. I was glad that Trump drew a distinction between the North and South, but wish he had also better illuminated a path forward. The US and ROK need to show the DPRK a path to a peaceful more prosperous future.

Hani: Neither the US nor China published the result of the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in detail. Is it likely that the two leaders agreed to more than a “press release” regarding the North Korean nuclear issue, including sanctions and negotiation?

Jannuzi: I don’t think Trump secured any specific assurances from Xi - just a vague promise to help bring DPRK back to talks. I don’t think China has as much leverage as Trump thinks, and DPRK will likely rebuff China’s efforts.

Hani: Do you agree with people who say that both the US and China tried to avoid confrontation in this summit? Either way, could you measure two countries’ goals and achievements in President Trump-Xi summit?

Jannuzi: Yes, Trump set aside almost all tough issues - trade, human rights, South China Sea. Beijing will be very pleased. It is much less clear what, if anything, the US got in return for Trump’s generosity.

Hani: How can we predict the state of US-China relations in both the short term (1-6 months) and long term (more than 6 months)?

Jannuzi: Short term, smooth sailing. Trump will avoid inflaming tension in hopes of securing Chinese help on DPRK. If China fails to deliver - which seems likely - then tension may grow as the US enters election cycle next summer.

Hani: Could you foresee any shift of South Korean and Japanese policy line in response to the change in US-China relations?

Jannuzi: South Korea and Japan, with US questioning KORUS and abandoning TPP, will likely hedge their bets, seeking closer ties with China (in case of ROK) and trying to cement TPP - 11 (in the case of Japan).

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

button that move to original korean article (클릭시 원문으로 이동하는 버튼)