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US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson speaks to reporters after meeting with Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland to discuss urgent issues

Discussions toward postponing joint South Korea-US military exercises are gathering steam ahead of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics on Feb. 9–25 and Paralympics on Mar. 9–18.

The progress is being read as a sign that an official decision by both South Korea and the US is imminent.

“We want the Pyeongchang Olympics to be successful and have committed to our ally that we will aid their success,” the Republic of Korea-US Combined Forces Command (CFC) said on Dec. 20 regarding the exercises’ postponement.

“We, as allies, are committed to an alliance decision on the exercises and will announce the decision when appropriate,” it continued.

The CFC statement made no direct reference to whether the exercises would be postponed. But after its previous repeated insistence that nothing had been decided on the matter, the fact that the CFC released an official position at all is seen as hinting at progress in the discussions.

The content is relatively encouraging. In general, the statement indicated the CFC would support the successful staging of the Olympics, make a decision on the exercises in the interests of the South Korea-US alliance, and announce the decision at an appropriate time. At its root, the message is seen as signaling it will take Seoul’s position into consideration as an ally.

The CFC statement also came less than one day after South Korean President Moon Jae-in publicly stated in an NBC interview that he had “made the proposal to the US” to postpone the joint exercises until after the Olympics and that the US was “currently examining it.” The position statement from CFC read as a response to Moon’s remarks.

As both Moon’s remarks and the CFC statement indicate, no decision has yet been reached on whether to postpone next spring’s joint exercises. But the fact that both sides have begun publicly mentioning the possibility – after previously maintaining a cautious stance on the postponement issue – is seen as indicating a high likelihood the postponement will happen. This means a greater chance the annual Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises that have traditionally been held between February and April will take place after the Pyeongchang Olympics and Paralympics are over.

“The issue is being sufficiently discussed, and the US also views this as a matter worth examining,” a key Blue House official said of the postponement in a meeting with reporters at the Blue House’s Spring and Autumn Pavilion press center.

“President Moon spoke after sufficiently considering all matters,” the official added.

The official also replied to reports that US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson claimed not to have heard anything about a postponement of the exercises.

“The channel for communication on the issue of postponing joint South Korea-US military exercises is between South Korean and US military authorities,” the official said, hinting that discussions and an agreement had taken place. The official also did not issue a denial when asked whether the discussions had taken place over the “hotline” between Blue House National Security Office director Chung Eui-yong and his White House counterpart H. R. McMaster.

“I’ll leave that for you to speculate on,” the official said.

A number of variables remain – most notably the attitude from Pyongyang. It remains difficult to reach any conclusions on what North Korea’s next action will be after declaring its “completion of the state nuclear force” late last month.

Underlying Seoul’s expression of commitment to the Pyeongchang Games is a message of trying to use the opportunity to draw the North into dialogue. This crucially requires a positive response from Pyongyang, as additional provocations would render a postponement of the exercises more or less meaningless.

When asked whether discussions of postponing the exercises would be scrapped in the event of another North Korean provocation, a senior Blue House official said, “It would obviously be tied to that.”

At the same time, Seoul has cautioned against reading a postponement as meaning a reduction or suspension of the joint military exercises.

“President Moon is talking about postponing the joint South Korea-US military exercises during the period that the Pyeongchang Olympics are going on,” the senior official said. “Downscaling of joint South Korea-US military exercises is not under consideration.”

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer and Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporter

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