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White House National Security Advisor John Bolton (left) meets with Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono in Tokyo on July 22. (Yonhap News)

The General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) between South Korea and Japan has emerged as a new variable in bilateral relations as Seoul hints at the possibility of weighing its abandonment as a defensive measure amid rising tensions with Japan, which has hinted at additional economic reprisals including the removal of South Korea from its “white list.”

Signed in 2016 amid a series of nuclear and missile tests by North Korea, GSOMIA was the first agreement established by the two sides in the military domain – essentially part of Washington’s East Asia strategy, which involved creating a trilateral security regime to contain China. As the matter of GSOMIA’s extension is undoubtedly of interest to the US, the next question is whether Seoul’s hints of backing out of GSOMIA could provoke Washington to intervene more actively in the South Korea-Japan trade conflict.

The GSOMIA issue is also expected to be a big part of the agenda when White House National Security Advisor John Bolton meets with Blue House National Security Office Director Chung Eui-yong, Minister of National Defense Jeong Kyeong-doo, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Kyung-wha during his visit to South Korea on July 23–24.

On July 18, Chung suggested that Seoul “may reconsider [the agreement] depending on the situation.” After Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono released a July 19 statement hinting at additional economic retaliation measures to come, a senior Blue House official was asked by a reporter whether Seoul was considering backing out of the agreement.

“We are considering all options,” the official replied.

“We will make the decision that best suits our interests based on an objective analysis,” the official added.

In connection with this, Kim Jong-dae, a Justice Party lawmaker and expert on military affairs, said, “The moment Japan removes South Korea from its white list will prove that it will be no longer regards South Korea as a strategic ally.”

“South Korea has no cause to extend GSOMIA when the aims and spirit behind its signing were improper,” Kim said.

Because of GSOMIA’s significance as a symbolic agreement sustaining trilateral cooperation by South Korea, the US, and Japan, the next question is how the US responds to Seoul’s hints that it may back out.

“GSOMIA holds a lot of symbolic meaning, in that it was signed amid the US’ attempts to establish robust trilateral security cooperation in the Northeast Asian region,” said a senior administration official.

“It was intended in a sense as a response to the North Korean nuclear crisis, but from the US standpoint, it has the aim of establishing a solid trilateral security framework with China in mind,” the official explained.

This analysis suggests that with GSOMIA strongly intended as a means of strengthening the US’ role as a check against China in the Asia-Pacific region, the US is certain to have an interest in seeing it renewed. One former Ministry of National Defense (MND) senior official predicted that the “shift in the direction of trilateral security coordination that has been consistently reinforced since 1945 is going to weigh heavy on the US.” A former military official said the US “could change from its current apathetic stance and involve itself more actively.”

Experts agreed that even if the South Korea-Japan conflict reaches the point where Seoul opts not to renew GSOMIA, the damage in terms of intelligence assets is unlikely to be large. A former military official who is closely acquainted with the trilateral sharing of military intelligence said, “The level of intelligence that is exchange by South Korea and Japan in practical terms is not that high.”

“With the presence of the ROK-US Command, the amount of intelligence that South Korea gets directly from Japan is minimal,” the former official said.

Kim Sook-hyeon, director of the international strategy research office at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said, “You can’t really say that South Korea has gained very much from military intelligence exchange with Japan.”

Kim added that Seoul’s references to considering backing out of GSOMIA “read more or less as a message demanding that the US mediate in the conflict between South Korea and Japan.”

By Noh Ji-won, staff reporter

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