hankyoreh

A panel discussion titled “The Future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and South Korea-China Cultural Creation Cooperation” at the 11th South Korea-China Journalists’ Forum in Beijing on Oct. 16. (Park Hyun, staff reporter)

South Korea’s top China experts are drawing attention with their differing outlooks on the future of the race for technological dominance currently unfolding between the US and China. Jung Yoo-shin, dean of the Sogang University Graduate School of Management of Technology, was optimistic about China’s future, predicting it could surpass the US within three to five years in the core Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) areas of big data and artificial intelligence (AI). In contrast, Choi Byung-il, a professor at the Ewha Womans University Graduate School of International Studies and chairman of the Korea International Economic Association, cautioned that China could find itself facing a decline if it fails to open up its markets and succumbs to insular economic nationalism.

The two scholars shared their views in a panel discussion titled “The Future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and South Korea-China Cultural Creation Cooperation” at the 11th South Korea-China Journalists’ Forum in Beijing on Oct. 16. In his presentation, Jung, author of the book “China Wins,” said that China “has increased its market by a factor of 31 by using internet and mobile technology to integrate 31 markets (provinces) that were previously united only on the surface but did not really communicate in terms of laws, culture, and even language.”

“In terms of scale, it has already created online-to-offline and sharing economy markets that surpass those of the US,” he said.

China will surpass US in 4th industrial revolution in 4-5 years

Regarding technological competitiveness, Jung said China “is behind the US right now, but its rate of development in the areas of AI, big data, cloud technology, and robotics over the past four to five years has been far faster than the US’ in terms of academic publications, patents, investment, and workforce.”

“In terms of big data, China doesn’t just have numbers – it also has three times as many text messages and videos,” he noted.

“If you consider that the population is five times as large and it has three times the data types and 1.3 times the personal information relaxation deregulation premium, China is 20 times as strong,” he said.

“The likelihood of it far surpassing the US in the areas of big data and AI within the next three to five years is high,” he predicted.

China will enter a decline if it fails to open up its markets

Appearing as a panelist, Choi shared a more circumspect stance on China’s rise as a technology power. Author of the book “Winner of the US-China War: Who Will Rule the World?,” Choi said the economic war between the US and China has “resulted in a ‘new normal’ where security logic gets in the way of trade and investment and people’s nationality is contested in technology.”

“If no normal agreement can be reached in the trade conflict, the technology ecosystem is poised to split into two: the Silicon Valley in California and the Chinese Silicon Valley in Shenzhen,” he predicted.

“To date, there has been one secret to emerging economies becoming technology powers: at some point, they knew they had to open up their markets and connect with the rest of the global market,” he said.

“If they fail to do that, they end up with technology and standards that only work in their own backyard, and they enter a path of decline,” he continued.

Choi also stressed that China cannot rely solely on the enormous scale of its market.

“During the IT boom of the 1990s, Japan created standards that applied only in Japan in order to protect its own market – which was then the world’s second largest – and it ended up losing ground to South Korea in the IT field,” he recalled.

Park Jeong-su, director of the service industry research office at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET), predicted that both sides could enjoy success through 4IR-related cooperation, while suggesting a few potential areas for collaboration. Park argued the heavy importance of gaining an early advantage in global technology standards means that South Korea and China should be cooperating to acquire base technology and establish global standards. He also suggested they could seek out areas where cooperation is needed by industry and value chain stage in the area of services in addition to manufacturing.

Jung Yoo-shin stressed the need for increased cooperation between the two sides to apply new technology in the service and consumer goods sectors of the Chinese domestic demand market, adding that a substantial synergy effect could be produced through medical and bio-related cooperation in view of the aging trend in China and the level of medical technology in South Korea.

By Park Hyun, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]