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South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha shakes hands with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi during a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Nagoya, Japan, on Nov. 23. (Yonhap News)

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appear to be preparing for a summit in China next month. The next question is whether they will be able to reach some form of comprehensive agreement to address the complex web of issues causing friction between the two sides -- including forced labor mobilization under imperial Japan, Japan’s recent export controls against South Korea, and the two sides’ General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) -- in the roughly one month between the decision to “conditionally defer termination” of GSOMIA and the summit.

But the two sides are expected to face major hurdles in finding common ground, as seen with the Blue House’s forceful response on Nov. 24 to claims by Japanese officials and media that Tokyo had made “no concessions,” which it criticized as “distorted and inflated claims,” “a violation of the principle of good faith,” and “not consistent with a leader’s conscience.”

Speaking to reporters after a bilateral foreign ministers’ meeting with Japan while attending a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Nagoya on Nov. 23, South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Kyung-wha announced plans to “coordinate with Japan so that our two sides’ leaders can meet” at a trilateral South Korea-China-Japan summit late next month in Chengdu, in China’s Sichuan Province. Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi similarly announced that the two had “agreed to coordinate toward a South Korea-Japan summit during the trilateral South Korea-China-Japan summit taking place in China in late December.” If the summit does come to pass, it would be the first in the 15 months since a September 2018 meeting during the UN General Assembly session in New York, not including an 11-minute conversation in Thailand on Nov. 4 during the ASEAN Plus Three Summit.

In addition to the bilateral summit, the South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers talked about a range of other issues during their meeting, including discussions toward the withdrawal of export controls, the forced labor issue, and the Korean Peninsula political situation. The meeting lasted for 35 minutes, or more than double the originally scheduled 15 minutes. The biggest issues concerned compensation for forced labor mobilization. While a “small deal” was reached with the GSOMIA termination being deferred conditionally upon Japan participating in dialogue to resolve the South Korean export control issue, the situation is very likely to end up back at square one if no agreement can be reached to resolve the forced labor issue.

Meeting with reporters in Nagoya ahead of the bilateral ministers’ meeting, Motegi said, “The biggest and most fundamental issue right now concerns the victims of forced conscription” -- clearly signaling Tokyo’s aim of tying the withdrawal of its export controls to a resolution of the forced labor issue.

With both governments now faced with having to hasten their efforts to resolve the forced labor mobilization issues, the survivors are facing their own turning point, with some organizing dialogue forums to find a solution. In addition to the South Korea-Japan summit, next month also brings the deadline for liquidating Japanese company assets seized in accordance with a Supreme Court ruling awarding forced labor victims compensation.

While acknowledging that there was “still a very large gap between the South Korean and Japanese sides,” a senior South Korean foreign affairs official added, “The fact the discussions are really beginning is significant in and of itself. We’re going to see some momentum building in discussions to resolve the forced labor issue.”

The key question will be whether a solution can be found that is approved by the survivors. A Blue House senior official stressed on Nov. 24 that the South Korean government had “never once violated its five principles with regard to resolving the issue of forced labor: compliance with the Supreme Court’s judgment, separation of powers, keeping in place the South Korea-Japan Claims Settlement Agreement from 1965, complying with the joint civilian-government committee of 2005, and approval by the survivors themselves.”

“The most important thing is acceptability to the survivors,” the official added.

Other visible efforts include the drafting of “survivor demands” by lawsuit participants and others to promote the efficacy of discussions. The survivors themselves are placing greater emphasis on resolving the issue through dialogue rather than the liquidation of assets seized from Japanese companies. Since the survivors hold different positions and many have not taken part in legal action, the demands are likely to include basic principles that must be observed, including Japan being held accountable for forced labor mobilization.

“We’ve been listening to a lot of different thoughts, not just from South Korea but also from the Japanese legal community,” said one of the survivors.

“Our feeling is that there needs to be some kind of official list of demands indicating what our thoughts are so that the South Korean and Japanese governments can use it as a reference.”

By Kim So-youn and Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporters

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