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US troops from the 82nd Airborne Division a prepare to board a plane bound for the Middle East at Fort Bragg in North Carolina on Jan. 4. (provided by US Dept. of Defense)

Tensions in the Middle East are rising after Qasem Soleimani, a powerful figure in Iran’s military and commander of the Quds Force, part of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, was killed in an American drone strike. This is causing the South Korean government to rethink the option of sending naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz by expanding the operational scope of its anti-piracy Cheonghae Unit when the next ship is rotated to the Gulf of Aden next month. With the US and Iran moving closer to war, a deployment to the Strait of Hormuz could not only damage South Korea’s relationship with Iran but also cause South Korean forces to be embroiled in a war.

The killing of Soleimani occurred as the US continued to push South Korea to join a coalition charged with defending the Strait of Hormuz. “The worsening conflict between the US and Iran obviously complicates the calculations for the South Korean government. The discussion of deployment hasn’t advanced any further. We’re keeping a close eye on the situation,” a South Korean government official said on Jan. 5. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint in the supply of global crude oil, is effectively controlled by the Iranian military.

The ROKS Gang Gam-chan is currently carrying out anti-piracy operations around the Bay of Aden, off the coast of Somalia, as part of the Cheonghae Unit’s 30th mission. The unit’s missions last for six months, and the 4,400-ton ROKS Wang Geon is scheduled to take over next month. Considering that it would take the Wang Geon no more than three days to travel the 1,800km from the Bay of Aden to the Strait of Hormuz, the South Korean government has been seriously considering the option of taking this opportunity to expand the Cheonghae Unit’s operational scope to include the Strait of Hormuz.

Amid the increasing likelihood of a collision between the US and Iran, the potential deployment is expected to spark concerns and criticism in the South Korean public. Before South Korean troops are sent into the troubled region, there are several contingencies that require consideration, including worsening relations with Iran and the threat posed to South Koreans living in the Middle East. At the moment, there are 1,600 South Korean citizens in Iraq, 290 in Iran, 700 in Israel, and 150 in Lebanon, the center of operations of Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group.

That said, the South Korean government cannot completely disregard the US’ request given the two countries’ ongoing negotiations over how to split the cost of stationing American troops on the Korean Peninsula and their cooperation on the North Korean nuclear issue.

“We continue to hold the basic position that we should contribute to efforts by the international community to maintain safety in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical region for crude oil shipping and commercial navigation. Specific plans will require a multifaceted review, and nothing has been decided at the present,” said an official from South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

This incident is also likely to be a factor in Korean Peninsula affairs, including the North Korea-US denuclearization negotiations. Since the tinderbox in the Middle East will inevitably refocus US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy to that region, the negotiations with North Korea might be put on the back burner, some analysts think.

“As instability rises across the entire Middle East, it will become harder for the US to actively intervene in the situation on the Korean Peninsula, including the denuclearization talks. Whenever tensions have been high in the Middle East, the US has attempted to maintain the status quo in Asia,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of international and area studies at Handong Global University.

If the US focus on the Middle East prolongs the deadlock in the North Korea-US negotiations, North Korea might make a provocative move. During a recent plenary session of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un mentioned a “new strategic weapon” while stating that the North’s course of action would depend on whether the US has a change of attitude.

But Park thinks it would be going too far to interpret the killing of Soleimani as a warning for North Korea. “One reason that Trump has created this situation is to help him move past his impeachment. Trump selected Iran for this extreme action because of his positive relations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. I don’t think this can be seen as a warning to the North.”

By Noh Ji-won and Kim So-youn, staff reporters

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]