hankyoreh

Hitoshi Oshitani, a professor of virology at Tohoku University and member of a novel coronavirus expert council established by the Japanese government, ahead of his interview with the Hankyoreh in Tokyo on Mar. 10. (Cho Ki-weon, Tokyo correspondent)

“Entry restrictions on people traveling from South Korea and China are not the measures needed right now from a public health perspective.”

Hitoshi Oshitani, a professor of virology at Tohoku University and member of a novel coronavirus expert council established by the Japanese government, voiced a negative assessment of his government’s entry restriction measures during an interview with the Hankyoreh at a Tokyo coffee shop on Mar. 10.

“The likelihood of infected persons coming in from South Korea and China is low,” he said.

Hankyoreh (Hani): What do you think of the Japanese government’s entry restriction measures for South Korea and China?

Oshitani: I’m a member of the expert council, but the restrictions on arrivals from South Korea and China are not something we recommended. [The novel coronavirus] has spread globally. It’s reached Southeast Asia, and they’re talking about the US being in danger. How far are you going to take [entry restrictions]? If infections spread in the US, are you going to restrict arrivals for travelers from the US? In that case, the only option would be to close the country off. It’s an option, but the economic losses would be very large. There may be some extraordinarily difficult situations where you have no choice but to respond aggressively, but this isn’t that kind of situation right now. The likelihood of infected persons coming in from South Korea or China is exceedingly low, and I don’t think it’s a measure that is necessary now in public health terms.

Hani: Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga acknowledged that [the decision] had not gone through the expert council. Was it discussed there?

Oshitani: It was never discussed. [The government] never even asked [the expert council].

Hani: You’ve expressed the view that the contagion is more difficult to block than was the case with SARS.

Oshitani: It’s currently impossible to block it like SARS. But the novel coronavirus has a weakness, and over 80% of those infected don’t pass the virus on to anyone. There have been cases of one infected person infecting many people, however. Examples include the [Shincheonji] church in South Korea or the live houses [small concert venues] in Osaka. We call them “cluster infections.” Japan is soldiering on right now, but it’s tough to say what will happen going forward.

Hani: You’ve remarked that intensified quarantines aren’t enough.

Oshitani: It is important to toughen quarantine measures. But the key thing is to prevent cluster infections from happening, rather than freaking out over an infection occurring. Cluster infections are more likely to happen in very enclosed settings like live houses or yakatabune [pleasure boats].

Hani: How do you rate the situation in Japan right now?

Oshitani: Apart from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, there haven’t been any major increases in infections yet. Things were dicey in Sapporo for a time, but they’re weathering it, and while there have been danger signs in Tokyo, Kanagawa, and Osaka, they’re also holding out.

Hani: Critics have said there hasn’t been enough testing for the virus in Japan.

Oshitani: It’s tough to say how much you should be testing and how. Early on, Japan fell far short of South Korea in its ability to perform testing. The shortcomings have been addressed now. There isn’t a country in the world where they can test everyone who feels like they’re coming down with a cold for the virus. We need to think strategically.

Hani: What should the international response be?

Oshitani: There’s still a lot we don’t know. We need everyone to share information and think about how to combat this virus effectively. We can learn some things from China, since they went through the experience first. South Korea and Japan have similar healthcare systems. In South Korea’s case, you had the transmission through the [Shincheonji] church; that could happen in Japan too. Japan needs to learn from South Korea in terms of what to do in that case. The way Japan is weathering things could also serve as a reference for South Korea. So this isn’t a situation that calls for political confrontation. Every country needs to share information and think about how to respond.

Hani: Is it possible the virus will weaken in the summer?

Oshitani: No. It isn’t weakening in the short term. Early on, there were a few cases of infections confined to China. At the moment, China is controlling the infections effectively, and infected people aren’t traveling outside. But there are now infections in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. The infections are spreading rapidly around the world. Infected people could arrive from places besides China. I think it could be a very difficult situation in the short term for South Korea and Japan, which share close relationships with Southeast Asia.

Hani: How would you compare the coronavirus with regular influenza?

Oshitani: It’s an incomparably more dangerous virus than regular influenza. With regular influenza, it isn’t the virus itself that kills people. People die from complications with influenza, whether it’s older people contracting bacterial pneumonia or people suffering myocardial infarction. But with this virus, it’s the virus itself that kills people. For senior citizens, it’s a very dangerous virus. Also, it’s typically people in their 80s and 90s who die after contracting the flu. But with the coronavirus, it isn’t just people in their 80s and 90s -- people are dying in their 50s, 60s, and 70s. That almost never happens with seasonal influenza.

Hani: Will it be possible for the Tokyo Olympics to go on as scheduled?

Oshitani: That depends on what’s going on with the world in general. I don’t see this as something that will be resolved quickly. There could be an outbreak in Africa. If there were a large outbreak in Africa, they wouldn’t be able to hold the Olympics. Just because the outbreak is checked in Japan, that doesn’t mean the Olympics can go ahead. It’s spreading rapidly around the world, and you can’t really have the Olympics when there’s a part of the world that can’t participate.

Hani: Has the Japanese government’s request to close all elementary, middle, and high schools had an effect?

Oshitani: With novel influenza or seasonal influenza, children spread infections. There’s a tendency for it to spread to the community after children become infected. So in the novel influenza case, closing all the schools early on is very effective. This case is different. Here, children are mainly getting infected by adults. It’s not possible to stop infections just by closing schools. Obviously, you can reduce the number of children getting infected. But children almost never develop serious symptoms. If you take that into consideration, it’s questionable how effective closing all the schools will be. I don’t see it as having any dramatic effect in terms of halting the infection’s spread.

By Cho Ki-weon, Tokyo correspondent

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]