hankyoreh

Discussants at the Hankyoreh-Busan International Symposium pose for a photo at Nurimaru APEC House in Busan on Nov. 11. (Baek So-ah, staff photographer)

In the wake of Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s unofficial victory in the US presidential election, the international community is focusing intently on what a Biden presidency will mean for the global foreign affairs and national security order ravaged by the “America first” approach of the Donald Trump administration. Will the US-China relationship and multilateral system that have been central parts of the international order be able to overcome the trauma and regroup?

On Nov. 11, the Hankyoreh Foundation for Reunification and Culture (HFRC) and the city of Busan jointly hosted the Hankyoreh-Busan International Symposium at Nurimaru APEC House in Busan on Nov. 11. At the symposium HFRC Chairman Moon Chung-il and former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd shared a discussion via teleconference on the topic of the post-pandemic international landscape and diplomatic challenges facing medium-sized powers.

Stressing the need for medium-sized countries to fill the gap in international leadership left by the US-China conflict, Rudd proposed the formation of “M7” and “M10” groups, with the “M” standing for “multilateral.” According to his view, countries that are US allies but remain constrained by US-China relations — including South Korea, Australia, Japan, France, Germany, and the UK — can achieve a way forward through the strengthening of multilateral regimes. These medium-sized countries will be able to discuss common interests through the establishment of a center in policy, financial, diplomatic, and political terms, he suggested.

Rudd also said that while the major powers are under the impression that they can exist without an international order, other medium-sized and small countries do not harbor such illusions. Moon shared his support, asserting that “the major powers do not determine everything. Their brand of ‘balance of powers determinism’ does not decide all, and countries that are not strong can also achieve things by joining forces.”

Also discussed were issues surrounding the decisions of South Korea and other medium-sized countries concerning the Quad, a strategic forum bringing together the US, Japan, India, and Australia that has been described as a US strategy for containing China. Noting that the Quad is “in opposition to” the M7 framework that Rudd was proposing, Moon predicted that South Korea’s participation would trigger an intense backlash from China. Rudd avoided giving an immediate reply, saying only that it was a matter of South Korea’s strategic decision to be made in consideration of the Korean Peninsula’s circumstances, including North Korea issues. He also advised pursuing both approaches simultaneously, acting as effective US allies while at the same time strengthening the multilateral system.

Both Moon and Rudd predicted the US and China would carry on their strategic competition under a Biden administration. But they also anticipated the two sides would not continue on their current full-scale collision course. Regarding the “New Cold War” between Washington and Beijing, Moon said the current hostile relationship was the result of a systematically coordinated strategy toward China that the Trump administration has been wielding since May. In contrast, Rudd stressed that the current antagonisms between the two sides are different from the past US-Soviet Cold War, suggesting there are still ample opportunities to avoid a new Cold War.

Both experts said the New Cold War between the US and China has in large part been exacerbated by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his own personal aims with his eye on the 2024 US presidential election. Moon predicted that even under a Biden administration, there was a “large possibility of pressure to pick sides between the US and China that will cause a lot of problems” for South Korea.

In terms of Korean Peninsula issues, Rudd predicted that the Biden administration would adopt more stringent and rational strategic policies on North Korea than the Trump administration. He also said the Biden administration would likely call on China to resume its pressure on the North. Moon said it was still too early to talk about the Biden administration’s North Korea policies, but predicted an “intense debate among three groups, namely the North Korea regional experts, the North Korea foreign affairs policy experts, and the nuclear proliferation experts.”

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

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