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South Korean President Moon Jae-in waits for Koichi Aiboshi, Japan's ambassador to South Korea, to exit after taking a photo together Wednesday in the Blue House. Moon received diplomatic credentials from the new Japanese ambassador that day. (Yonhap News)

After the Japanese government decided Tuesday to dilute radioactive water at the Fukushima nuclear power plant and then release it into the ocean, South Korean President Moon Jae-in responded firmly by asking officials to aggressively explore the option of lodging an objection with the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. Moon's response makes it almost certain that South Korea-Japan relations will grow more strained.

Seoul explains its action as representing a "two-track" approach in which it takes a principled stand on nonnegotiable issues such as historical disputes and public health while remaining open to cooperation where possible.

The South Korean government's inflexible stance on Japan's decision to discharge the contaminated water was evident as early as Monday, the day before Japan's decision was officially announced.

On that day, a spokesperson for South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement about the possibility of Japan releasing contaminated water into the ocean. The statement expressed "serious concerns" about the Japanese government's decision and adopted a stern position, stating that South Korea "could not accept" a decision by Japan to release the water into the ocean "without adequate consultation" with South Korea.

Koo Yun-cheol, head of South Korea's Office for Government Policy Coordination, announced the government's countermeasures Tuesday, the day that Japan made its decision. Koo repeatedly slammed Japan in unusually strong language, describing Japan's decision as "absolutely unacceptable."

When Japanese ambassador to South Korea Koichi Aiboshi paid a courtesy call on Moon Wednesday to present his diplomatic credentials, Moon said, "There's something I'm obliged to tell you. [Japan's decision has aroused] very serious concerns in Korea, which is your closest neighbor and shares a sea with you."

Then in a meeting at the Blue House, Moon instructed his advisors to find a method under international law that could prevent Japan from carrying out that plan.

South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs had previously maintained that Japan has the sovereign right to discharge the contaminated water. Rather than trying to block the decision itself, therefore, it took the more realistic approach of promoting South Korea's position by asking Japan to transparently disclose information and allow South Korea to participate in monitoring after the discharge begins.

That's why Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi offered the following rebuttal of South Korea and China's sharp statements of criticism in a press conference Monday.

"We have vigorously and transparently provided information to China, South Korea, and other members of the international community, including serious briefings to diplomatic delegations and information sharing with the IAEA. The US has rated our efforts very highly."

There seem to be two reasons for Moon's radical pivot to attempting to stop Japan from carrying out its decision. The first reason has to do with domestic politics. Since Moon's Democratic Party took a shellacking in mayoral by-elections Thursday in Seoul and Busan, his approval rating is likely to plunge even further, rendering him a lame duck, unless he takes an aggressive stance on a sensitive issue such as this one, which is tied directly to public health.

There's also an international factor in play. Following Yoshihide Suga's election as Prime Minister of Japan in September 2020, the Moon administration has aggressively pushed to improve relations with Japan, promising to help turn the Tokyo Olympics into a "peace Olympics."

Over the past six months, Moon has consistently made overtures for reconciliation with Japan. He even suggested that the two countries "put their heads together with an attitude of walking a mile in each other's shoes" during his commemorative address for the March 1 Independent Movement.

But instead of taking Moon up on these overtures, Japan has remained intransigent, insisting that South Korea offer more concrete concessions.

Then on April 6, North Korea announced that it would not compete in the Tokyo Summer Olympics, which Moon had regarded as a key opportunity for restarting the Korean Peninsula peace process. That announcement seriously weakened the motivation for South Korea improving relations with Japan.

Negative factors keep stacking up. On Wednesday, a South Korean court is scheduled to return its verdict in another damages lawsuit filed by surviving "comfort women," referring to women forced to work in military brothels by the Japanese army in World War II.

If the court ignores "sovereign immunity," a principle in customary international law, and rules in favor of the plaintiffs, as another court did in January, South Korea-Japan relations are sure to be roiled once again.

Also of interest are the US and China's reactions, which are now entering a tenser phase in their rivalry. US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement Monday that the US understands the Japanese government's decision. But China's Foreign Ministry staked out a tough position in its statement, stating that Japan "must not unilaterally release [the contaminated water] until an adequate agreement has been reached between stakeholders and the IAEA."

On the issue of the contaminated water, South Korea and China stand on one side, while the US and Japan on the other. It remains to be seen how much South Korea will cooperate with China on this issue as Seoul faces pressure to join with American allies, including the Quad, to contain China.

By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter

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