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US and South Korean marines conduct a joint exercise in March 2016, on a beach in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province. (Hankyoreh photo archives)

US President Joe Biden’s promise during his summit Friday with South Korean President Moon Jae-in to provide COVID-19 vaccines to the 550,000 troops in the South Korean military may be designed to pave the way for large-scale joint field exercises with South Korea this August, US military analysts say.

Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Radio Free Asia on Monday that Biden’s promise to vaccinate South Korean troops raised the possibility of resuming large-scale joint military exercises, which are currently on hold.

In that case, O’Hanlon predicted, North Korea would no longer maintain its moratorium on nuclear weapons tests and test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Bruce Bennett, a defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, said that vaccinating all 550,000 South Korean service members by August would make it possible to hold joint field exercises that month without the risk of spreading COVID-19.

Gen. Paul LaCamera, nominee to become commander of US Forces Korea and the ROK/US Combined Forces Command, told the US Senate Armed Services Committee during a confirmation hearing on May 18 that actual exercises are obviously more desirable than virtual exercises when it comes to maintaining military readiness.

Currently, South Korean President Moon Jae-in is struggling to achieve two likely irreconcilable goals: resuming inter-Korean exchange and North Korea-US talks, which are both paused, while also completing the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) over South Korean troops before leaving office.

To meet the US’s requirements for the OPCON transfer, South Korea needs, if possible, to hold the field exercises normally held every August. But those same exercises provoke fierce pushback from North Korea, potentially spoiling an opportunity to resume dialogue.

North Korea has maintained a moratorium on nuclear weapons tests and ICBM test launches announced in the 3rd Plenary Session of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea following the resumption of dialogue with the US in April 2018.

Then-US president Donald Trump reciprocated by calling a halt to large-scale joint military exercises with South Korea at the first North Korea-US summit, held in Singapore on June 12 of that year.

Few exercises have been held since 2020 because of the COVID-19 crisis. That has also kept South Korea and the US from verifying full operational capability and full mission capability, two of the steps required for OPCON transfer.

By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter

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