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People get tested for COVID-19 at a temporary screening center in Gangneung, Gangwon Province, on Thursday. (Yonhap News)

The fourth wave of COVID-19 infections continued unabated on Thursday, which marked the 18th day since Level 4 social distancing was applied over the greater Seoul area and three days since Level 3 distancing was applied throughout the rest of South Korea.

As the pinch grows for small business operators and others, many are asking when the current restrictions might be relaxed. Disease control authorities have stated the primary target as reducing the levels seen before the fourth wave — but many are questioning how realistic that goal is.

The Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) announced Thursday that a total of 1,674 new cases had been confirmed as of the end of the day Wednesday.

The number was down by 221 from the all-time high of 1,895 recorded the day before, but it was still the 23rd straight day with a new caseload of more than 1,000 patients.

In the greater Seoul area, the average daily number of new confirmed cases was 952.7 for the week from July 23 to 29, down slightly from 983.9 for the week from July 16 to 22. In contrast, the average outside of greater Seoul was 556.3 over the same period, up from 442.7 the week before.

At 570, the number of new confirmed cases outside of greater Seoul on Wednesday was 35% of all domestic infections, marking a 12th straight day where the proportion was above 30%.

Level 4 social distancing was applied to the greater Seoul area on July 12, and Level 3 social distancing was applied throughout the rest of South Korea on July 27.

But the trend shows no signs of reversing, leading some to suggest that the Level 4 regime should be applied nationally. The government has stressed the need to wait and see the effects of the current distancing regimes.

“The effects of the across-the-board Level 3 measures that were implemented this week outside the Seoul area take more than just a few days to appear,” said Son Young-rae, head of the social strategy group for the Central Disaster Management Headquarters, in a briefing Thursday.

“We expect to start to see post-implementation changes outside of the greater Seoul area around the second half of next week,” he said.

“It isn’t rational to propose imposing nationwide Level 4 measures right away without taking into account the need for time for the effects of the [current] measures to appear,” he said.

The government has also stressed that the primary target of its Level 4 distancing in greater Seoul and Level 3 distancing outside of it is a return to “pre-fourth wave levels” of infections. This signals that the restrictions could be loosened once that target is achieved.

Just before the fourth wave started on July 7, the new daily confirmed caseload was in the range of 700–800 patients.

“The primary objective [of the social distancing regime] is to reach the levels we saw before the first wave and maintain the trend of decreasing cases,” said Park Young-joon, director of the CDCH epidemiological research team, in a briefing Thursday.

It’s a step farther than the targets stated by the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters when they decided to extend Level 4 distancing in greater Seoul for an additional two weeks and apply Level 3 distancing throughout the rest of South Korea. At the time, the CDCSH said its goals were to achieve a “decline in cases in greater Seoul and stop the spread outside of greater Seoul.”

But with no way of knowing when the current wave will peak, experts predicted it could take several months for the situation to stabilize with fewer than half as many new daily confirmed cases as there currently are.

“I see returning to a pre-fourth wave scale of transmission as being a really difficult and unrealistic goal,” said Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University.

“That would require a vaccination rate of at least 60–70%,” he said.

“We might be able to consider easing disease control measures once inoculations of the high-risk segment of people in their 50s are complete in late August, but we’re going to have to carry on under the current conditions for anywhere from another month to two months,” he said.

By Kim Ji-hoon, staff reporter

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