Polls show toss-up between candidates D-50 days to S. Korean presidential election

Posted on : 2022-01-19 17:17 KST Modified on : 2022-01-19 17:22 KST
Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol’s support numbers fell within the margin of error in numerous polls this week
Candidates for this year’s presidential election, from left to right: Sim Sang-jung of the minor progressive Justice Party, Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party, Yoon Suk-yeol of the main opposition People Power Party, and Ahn Cheol-soo of the minor opposition People's Party.
Candidates for this year’s presidential election, from left to right: Sim Sang-jung of the minor progressive Justice Party, Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party, Yoon Suk-yeol of the main opposition People Power Party, and Ahn Cheol-soo of the minor opposition People's Party.

With less than 50 days left until South Korea elects its next president, multiple polls are showing Democratic Party presidential nominee Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party presidential nominee Yoon Suk-yeol to be neck and neck in the race for the Blue House, their support numbers falling within the margin of error.

According to the results of an Embrain Public survey released on Tuesday commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo, support for Yoon stood at 35.9% while Lee polled slightly lower at 33.4%. Yoon’s numbers are up 5.9 percentage points from the same survey three weeks ago while Lee dropped 6 percentage points. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

People’s Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo’s ratings rose by 5.5 percentage points compared to three weeks ago, reaching 15.6% while Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jung saw her support fall by 1.7 percentage points to 4%.

In another opinion poll conducted by Kantar Korea, Yoon was leading Lee by a margin of 1.1 percentage points. The survey, commissioned by The Chosun Ilbo and TV Chosun, showed Yoon at 32.8%, Lee at 31.7%, Ahn at 12.2% and Sim at 2.7%.

A poll conducted by Next Research released on the same day showed Lee slightly ahead of Yoon at 32.9% to 31.6%, respectively. According to this poll, Ahn’s support stood at 12.7% and Sim’s at 2.7%.

All three opinion polls show that the two leading presidential candidates are polling close to the 30% mark, within the margin of error.

Generally, in past presidential elections, the candidate who was ahead in the polls 50 days out from the election ended up winning the Blue House. But this time around it seems likely the results won’t be known until the last ballot is tallied on March 9.

The Embrain Public survey was conducted over Saturday and Sunday, targeting 1,006 voting-age adults across the country, using telephone interview survey methods that combined random digit dialing (14.8%) and virtual numbers (85.2%).

The Kantar Korea survey polled 1,010 adults during the same period using random digit dialing and computer-assisted telephone interviewing.

The Next Research poll surveyed 1,004 adults over the phone on Saturday and Sunday.

Further information about the polls can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

By Lee Wan, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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