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People wait in line at a COVID-19 screening station in Songpa District, Seoul, on July 14. (Yonhap News)

A private research team is predicting that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Korea could rise faster than the government’s forecast. These new predictions show that, by mid-August, there could be up to 280,000 new confirmed cases per day.

As the BA.2.75 subvariant — dubbed “Centaurus” by some online — which has a stronger transmission capacity than the BA.5 mutation behind the current upwards trend in cases in Korea, has been confirmed in the country, there are concerns that a resurgence of infections may be larger and more serious than previously thought.

Experts advise that rather than waiting for new cases to pass a certain threshold before acting, Korea should be taking measures to ensure sufficient medical response capabilities are in place before it reaches the peak of the wave.

On Thursday, a report predicting the current infection trend was published by a COVID-19 mathematical modeling task force run by the National Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the Korean Mathematical Society.

Choi Sun-hwa, a researcher at the National Institute of Mathematical Sciences, predicted that if the basic reproduction number — which was 1.42 as of Wednesday — increases by 30%, it is predicted that Korea will record 81,267 new cases on July 27, two weeks later, and 288,546 cases on Aug. 10, a month later.

As of Wednesday, the seven-day moving average of COVID-19 cases was 24,000, which is expected to increase 3.4 times within two weeks and 12 times after four weeks.

BA.5, a subvariant of the Omicron strain, is known to spread 30% faster than the currently predominant BA.2 subvariant. Experts say that a much faster spread is possible if BA.5 becomes the dominant variant in Korea.

Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University, also released findings from a study on his Facebook page that predicted an average of 200,000-250,000 infections per day by mid-August.

These forecasts by private researchers show a coming wave that is both faster and larger than the 200,000 infections per day by mid-September forecast announced by the government on Wednesday.

In fact, the current number of cases has already surpassed the government’s previous forecasts.

Around June, disease control authorities expected about 17,000 confirmed cases per day by the end of August, but the seven-day moving average of cases on Tuesday had already exceeded 20,000.

Experts cited the emergence of new mutations and waning immunity as reasons for real figures deviating from forecasts.

Unlike the first through fifth waves of infections, the BA.5 mutation that is currently spreading in Korea has become prevalent all over the world at nearly the same time, meaning there is not much information about it.

It is known that BA.5 is highly transmissible, but just how well it can evade immunity of those previously infected or vaccinated people requires further research.

The BA.2.75 subvariant, which has been spreading aggressively since it was first confirmed in India at the end of May, has also emerged as a new variable as it has now entered Korea.

The decline in immunity acquired by infection or vaccination around the three-to-four-month mark post vaccination and infection also makes it difficult to predict the direction of future infection trends.

Jang Young-ook, an associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy said, “If predictions are not properly made, that’ll mean beds and manpower are not properly prepared, which can lead to an increase in the number of critically ill patients and deaths."

Shin Sang-yeop, a standing researcher at the Korea Medical Institute, said, “Once we’re past September, the [immune] effect preventing serious diseases Korea has had will drop significantly.” Shin added, “If the number of severe cases increases, it will put a burden on the medical system, and it is questionable whether it will be possible [to handle] with the current hospital bed measures.”

By Lim Jae-hee, staff reporter; Jang Hyeon-eun, staff reporter

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