hankyoreh

South Korea, US and Japan conduct a joint naval drill in the waters southeast of Jeju Island on Nov. 26 with the stated intent of deterring North Korean nuclear and missile threats. (courtesy of US Navy)

Out of all the pledges made in the Sept. 19 inter-Korean military pact signed in 2018, agreements to cease all hostile activity by land, air and sea; withdraw troops from 11 guard posts (GPs) along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ); and demilitarize the Joint Security Area (JSA) in Panmunjom comprised the most symbolic and tangible measures for achieving inter-Korean peace.

On Friday, North Korea began restoring fortifications for 11 guard posts in the DMZ, dispatching troops and arming them with recoilless rifles and other heavy weapons. Taking place only one day after Pyongyang announced that it had nullified the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement, these movements are the most visible displays of North Korea breaking its side of the inter-Korean military pact. As inter-Korean military tensions continue to escalate, the likelihood of an unintentional skirmish increases. There are concerns that the momentum of this tit-for-tat military buildup along the inter-Korean border could snowball out of control.

The 1953 Armistice Agreement that paused the Korean War limits weaponry allowed in the DMZ to pistols and semi-automatic rifles, banning heavy weapons in the border region. For decades, however, North Korea has armed its guard posts in the DMZ with mortars, 14.5 x 114 mm anti-aircraft guns, recoilless rifles, and other heavy weaponry. South Korea has responded by arming its GPs with K6 heavy machine guns and K4 automatic grenade launchers.

In fact, the guard posts themselves are violations of the Armistice Agreement. Yet since the Armistice Agreement, South Korea is known to have operated over 70 GPs, while North Korea has reportedly operated over 150 GPs. The term “Demilitarized Zone” is a misnomer, as the region is one of the most heavily militarized borders in the world. Both South and North Korean GPs are within firing range of the other side’s rifles and machine guns, so a firefight or military clash is always a possibility.

When former South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced the Pyongyang Declaration in April 2018, they focused on demilitarizing the DMZ and converting it into a region of peace. Initial measures to realize this vision were included in the Sept. 19 comprehensive military agreement and included withdrawing weapons and troops from 11 North Korean GPs and 11 South Korean GPs based within 1 km of the other side’s military facilities. The two Koreas respectively demolished or tore down 11 GPs by November 2018, but inter-Korean tensions stiffened again at that point. The decommissioning of GPs was suspended, and most DMZ GPs on both sides are currently operating as they’ve been since the armistice was signed.

Since the restoration of guard posts in the DMZ nullifies the bulk of the Sept. 19 pact’s most meaningful agreements, military authorities view this move as a sign that the 2018 accord may be rendered void in its entirety.

One military insider told the Hankyoreh, “Rearming GPs seems like a natural follow up to North Korea’s announcement that it was scrapping the Sept. 19 inter-Korean military pact on Nov. 23.”

Consequently, South Korean military authorities are eyeing the option of remilitarizing the JSA. Both South and North Korea withdrew guard posts, personnel and firearms within the JSA as of Oct. 25, 2018.

Along with the restoration of guard posts within the DMZ, North Korea is also increasing its artillery along the western coast.

“Typically, North Korea leaves the doors for one or two coastal gun ports for each GP, but this has recently increased to 10 or more ports per GP,” said the aforementioned military source.

The Sept. 19 agreement calls for the cessation of all hostile activity by sea (135 km on the western coast and 80 km on the eastern coast), including the firing of artillery and naval maneuvers. This means that all gun ports must be closed, and the barrels of all cannons must be covered. If North Korea continues to ramp up coastal artillery threats, South Korea could respond by resuming coastal live-fire exercises of the K9 howitzers, which were suspended as a result of the 2018 pact. This would effectively make the agreement to cease maritime hostilities go up in smoke, adding to the already void agreement to end hostile activity by air.

In response to questions about South Korea’s restoration of guard posts within the DMZ, Kim Myung-soo, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, “Our response measures will be announced in due time,” essentially hinting that the GPs would be brought back. Continuing tit-for-tat will demolish the basic framework of the Sept. 19 agreement that establishes an inter-Korean buffer zone and calls for the cessation of all hostile activity by land, air and sea. That’s causing concerns that tensions could snowball out of control.

Between Saturday and Monday, the Pyongyang General Control Center of the National Aerospace Technology Administration submitted operational reports on the military reconnaissance satellite launched on Nov. 21 to Kim Jong-un, according to Pyongyang’s state-run Korean Central News Agency. The agency reported that Kim received satellite photos of Guam’s US Andersen Air Force Base and the Italian capital of Rome, among other locations.

By Kwon Hyuk-chul, staff reporter; Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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