hankyoreh

A performance by the Korean Federation for Environmental Movement.

It is the summer of 2057. Ten years have passed since the once-annual jangma (summer rains) ceased in Korea. The soil is dessicated, and regular heat waves cause strings of deaths among city dwellers.

To make matters worse, the weatherman forecasts the onslaught of a colossal typhoon, more destructive than the 2005 hurricane Katrina. The news of dengue fever deaths on Jeju Island is no longer surprising. The Amazon Rainforest is turning into a desert. Half of the ice shelf once covering Greenland has melted. Environmental refugees from the beflooded lands of Bangladesh and the South Pacific search the world for shelter. As it is inordinately expensive to raise the levee gates, Korean public opinion has decided to leave the fate of the reclaimed plains of Saemangum to the behest of the waves.

Back to 2007. In a scenario drawn up by a U.N. committee of specialists, the scenes above may very well become a reality if global warming continues at the present pace. English Prime Minister Tony Blair warned that if the threat of global warming is not confronted now, future calamities are unavoidable. Perhaps our children will ask, "Why did our parents not do anything about global warming, despite knowing everything about it?"

On the 27th of last month, the South Korea Meteorological Research Institute’s carbon dioxide monitor located in the Yellow Sea read 392 ppm (parts per million). That number corresponds to a 30-percent increase from the 280 ppm carbon dioxide density present before the industrial revolution. Dr. Jo Jeon-ho of the institute explained that "once emitted, carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for 5 to 200 years, contributing to global warming over that period."

A three-stage report released in 2001 by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that the temperature in 2100 would rise globally by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius from its 1990 levels. A more detailed four-stage report is scheduled for release this year.

So what is the big deal if the temperature rises some 5 or 6 degrees over the next 100 years? Climate experts all agree that if global surface temperatures increase by so much as 1 degree, the consequences are severe. Over the last century, the average global temperature rose 0.6 degrees, and the planet has been shuddered with abnormal weather as a result. In the past 1,000,000 years, global temperatures have never been as high as they are now.

The European Union recently decided to prevent temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees above those present at the dawn of the industrial revolution. Yet even a 2-degree change can have serious consequences for the Earth. A recent article by prominent NASA climatology scholar James Hansen warned that an increase of 1.8 degrees would lead to a perilous situation.

Scientists divide the planet’s surface into strips hundreds or thousands of kilometers wide, and forecast future climate changes using supercomputers. Countries in turn use such climate models to prepare for impending temperature changes. The more advanced climate models become, the greater the accuracy of temperature forecast. Current models show that world temperatures are not increasing at a steady rate, but rather repeatedly lurching between extreme highs and lows, while overall showing a trend of increasing. In the future, extreme weather phenomena are expected to continue, in the form of devastating occurrences such as prolonged droughts.

According to the results arrived at by the "Earth Simulator," a high-powered supercomputer managed by a research institute in Japan, the end of the present century will witness the summer rain fronts halting over Japan from June to August, resulting in severe water shortages in the Yellow River Basin. Of course, there are also climate models showing that as precipitation levels increase in East Asia, occurrences of flooding will increase correspondingly.

Climate changes are taking shape in a slightly more pronounced fashion on the Korean peninsula. "According to our model," explained Gwon Won-tae director of the Climate Research Center at the Korea Meteorological Administration, "the 2100 temperature in East Asia will have increased by 6.5 degrees Celsius, compared with a 4.6 degree increase for the rest of the world and, similarly, precipitation in East Asia will have increased by 10.5 percent, as compared to 4.4 percent globally. Both heavy rains and droughts will increase on the Korean peninsula, and abnormal weather patterns will take shape, such as typhoons of increased scale."

Signs of this are already appearing. The 2006 average air temperature measured in Korea was 13 degrees Celsius, the fifth highest on record. Though precipitation in the central regions set a new record, rainfall in March, August, and September was not even half of the average for the corresponding periods in years past.

The desertification of the Amazon Rainforest, the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice shelves, the rise of sea levels and the frigid cold enveloping Northern Europe as the ocean current cycles in the Atlantic Ocean subside are all factors that could combine to make environmental refugees of some 250 million people. The problem is that in order to stop global warming, action must be taken immediately - to use an analogy, if a large tanker is to anchor in port, it must cut its engine 25 kilometers in advance.

In order to reduce greenhouse gases, the use of fossil fuels such as petroleum and coal must be decreased, and the use of non-polluting alternative energies must be introduced. This means that individuals, families, and nations alike must all suffer some discomfort and bear the economic consequences of switching to more expensive energy sources.

The effects of economic growth derived from the discharge of greenhouse gases are but cursory, and are of benefit solely to that country. On the other hand, the costs of global warming increase progressively, and impose themselves upon all nations. For this reason, even while acknowledging the need for greenhouse gas emission reductions, countries try to minimize their own responsibilities to act.

South Korea is no exception to this. By 2004 emissions standards, South Korea ranks as the No. 10 global polluter. Though the ratio of greenhouse gas emissions to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has decreased, the total quantity of emissions continues to increase at one of the fastest rates internationally. The government has consistently operated under the premise that the national interest lies in avoiding gas emissions reductions when feasible, and in instances where reductions are inescapable, to delay their implementation as much as possible.

This government attitude is betrayed in the very name of the climate policies adopted. In 1999, the first government-wide integrated policy was named not "Integrated Measures to Counter Climate Changes" but rather "Integrated Measures in Reaction to the Global Climate Treaty."

In 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions was signed into effect, Korea was categorized as a developing country and was thus exempted from the obligation. Many expect Korea to be included as one of the obligated countries beginning in 2013.

The government’s defensive posture is also clear in a reading of the policy’s contents. Nowhere in the 2005 to 2007 "Third Stage of Integrated Measures in Reaction to the Global Climate Treaty" is a target level set for greenhouse gas reductions.

Rather, the Integrated Measures list a diverse set of 90 topics to be pursued. However, the majority of these were already in the process of being pursued, or had been pursued in the past. "Most of the energy and environmental items were merely repackaged from preexisting policies, and funding has remained constant for each department, so it is unclear what additional efforts have been made to combat climate change," said Yun Sun-ji, professor of the Environment at Seoul National University Graduate School.

One reason for the government’s failure to set target greenhouse gas discharge levels is the difficulty in reliably gauging emissions. In order to perform such calculations, a system must be established to measure emissions at each factory, every building, and from each vehicle. This structure is slated to be in place by 2008.

But upon its completion, will target levels be set?

Sin Bu-nam of the Ministry of Environment, said that "there is no duty for us to make reductions, but in the fourth stage of policy implementation from 2008-2010, the Ministry of Environment hopes to set visible standards to give industries specific goals."

However, it is doubtful as to whether the policies implemented will reflect the wishes of the Ministry of Environment, as there are voices within the government arguing that setting such standards could come back to hurt Korea in the event of an international treaty on climate control.

For now, it seems, regarding the environment, South Korea is content to just wait and see what is to come.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]