hankyoreh

South Korea’s current political landscape is reflected in opinions held about the proposed S.K.-U.S. free trade agreement (FTA).

The FTA, which is expected to be concluded by early April in line with the schedule of the U.S. Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), will likely play a role in December’s presidential elections.

The TPA would require U.S. Congress to give a yes-or-no vote on the entire FTA; if the negotiations are not concluded by April 2, the FTA’s passage will not fall under the TPA, and each portion of the trade deal will have to be individually approved by U.S. lawmakers.

Opinions of ordinary citizens, as well as the political parties and presidential candidates they support, are mixed according to their region and age, among other factors.

If the FTA negotiations progress according to the TPA timetable, the only remaining procedure would be to get approval for the deal from Korea’s National Assembly. Considering the domestic political situation, however, it will be difficult for the Assembly to quickly vote on the matter. With the FTA set to be a hot-button issue for voters in the December presidential elections and the general elections in April of next year, a protracted debate in the Assembly - including a lot of positioning from the potential presidential candidates and their parties - is anticipated. In this way, the FTA can be seen as an issue which could realign the domestic political landscape.

As of March 14, the attitude of the presidential hopefuls can be divided into two categories. The so-called "Big 3" - Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye and Sohn Hak-kyu, all of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) - are pro-FTA, although the administration of President Roh Moo-hyung, formerly of the ruling Uri Party - the GNP’s main rival - is pushing forward the FTA. The remaining potential candidates are anti-FTA.

Former Gyeonggi Provincial Governor Sohn Hak-kyu especially favor the FTA, saying, "The flow of free trade can’t be overturned." Former Seoul Mayer Lee Myung-bak and Former GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye attached to their supporting stance the conditions to not open the sensitive agricultural section to foreign competition, but the two do not seem very serious about pushing for this condition.

On the contrary, former head of the ruling Uri Party and potential presidential hopeful Chung Dong-young said, "I don’t agree with following the U.S. position by pushing for a fixed negotiation period," comments which suggest that Chung opposes the FTA.

Kim Geun-tae, former chairman of Uri Party, agreed with Chung’s stance on the FTA, as did former Justice Minister under President Roh Moo-hyun Chun Jung-bae, who warned, "If the FTA is signed, the alliance of President Roh Moo-hyun, the GNP, and the conservative media will be completed.’ Both Kim and Chun are also potential presidential hopefuls.

Other potential GNP presidential candidates, such as Won Hee-ryong and Ko Jin-hwa, favor the opening of the market in principle, but they have urged the government not to rush the proceedings. Reps. Kwon Young-ghil, Roh Hoe-chan and Shim Sang-jeong, all from the left-leaning Democratic Labor Party, are against the FTA. Chung Woon-chan, former president of Seoul National University and economics professor who may be drafted into running for the presidency by the Uri Party, is against the FTA, as well, saying that South Korea should not think of the opening of its market as being an uncontestably good move.

Voters’ attitude toward the matter shows a divided nation. Surveyed about the impact of the expansion of the bilateral trade, 48.3 percent of the respondents replied positively, while 44.8 percent negatively. By region, the Seoul metropolitan area and the Yeongnam area, or the nation’s southeast and the stronghold of the GNP, supported the FTA, while the central Chungcheong provinces and the Honam area (the nation’s southwest), where supporters of the Uri Party are more numerous, opposed it.

By age, older generations tend to approve the FTA. Of those over 50, 52.6 percent approved the deal, but 52.5 percent of those between 19 and 29 opposed it. By gender, nearly 53 percent of males and about 44 percent of females supported an FTA. By educational level, persons that had obtained greater years of education were more supportive than those with less years of education; higher levels of income had a similar effect.

By political party, nearly 50 percent of GNP supporters and about 44 percent of Uri Party supporters approved of the FTA. About 52 percent of supporters of Lee Myung-bak agreed with the trade negotiations, while 44 percent of supporters of Park Geun-hye were pro-FTA.

The survey of 1,000 South Koreans conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) on February 21 was performed at a 95-percent confidence level and a 3.1-percentage-point margin of error.

Another survey performed by the KSOI on March 13 showed similar tendencies overall. In addition, in the more recent survey, nearly 74.6 percent of respondednts said the government should not sign the FTA with the United States until the positions of Korea’s citizens are fully mirrored in the terms of the deal, and 24.1 percent said the deal should be struck because the two nations have already sufficiently disscussed the terms of the agreement.

Overall, region and age were the strongest determining factors in people’s opinions about the FTA - the two factors also considered most decisive in the upcoming presidential election.

Han Gui-yeong, an official of the KSOI, said, "We will continue to conduct polls on the FTA matter, as public opinion regarding the FTA can work as an important variable in the presidential election."

During a March 13 Cabinet meeting, President Roh’s remarks on the issue were contradictory. He urged the government "not to make political considerations," but went on to say, "It is true that to sign the agreement and enter the phase of National Assembly approval will bring with it significant political burden."

In a democratic country, all issues are decided with votes, meaning that any given topic is not free from politics. One of such topics, the U.S.-S.K. FTA will likely continue to be a serious political issue for a while.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]