» Chung Dong-young

A pool of presidential hopefuls from the so-called pan-ruling party circle is taking shape. From the "anti-Roh" camp, which refers to a group of politicians who are not in favor of incumbent President Roh Moo-hyun, there is former Gyeonggi provincial governor Sohn Hak-kyu and former unification minister Chung Dong-young. From the so-called 'pro-Roh' camp there are former prime ministers Lee Hae-chan and Han Myeong-sook.

The four presidential aspirants started stepping up pre-campaign moves between June 17 and 19. Was it a coincidence?

The term "pan-ruling party circle" or "pan-ruling camp" represents one of the unique features of the South Korean political landscape. President Roh Moo-hyun was a member of the Uri Party, only to drop out of the party in February, taking responsibility for the party's in-a-row by-election failures. With President Roh's defection, the Uri Party falls short of being the ruling party, even though the president still has an unofficial link to the party. In tandem with Roh's departure, many lawmakers, including heavyweights such as former GNP chairman Kim Geun-tae and former Justice minister Chun Chung-bae, also defected from the party, but in an effort to distance themselves from both the president and Uri, both suffering from very low approval ratings.

These defectors, however, did not join the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) nor the progressive minority Democratic Labor Party. They chose to either stay independent or form small separate groups, claiming that a "new, integrated party" that would overarch all of the liberal forces - including current Uri Party members - is needed to win the next presidential election over the strongly-polling conservative GNP. Endorsement for such a pan-liberal coalition is echoed by many remaining members of the Uri Party and other well-known liberal politicians, and this group is called the "pan-ruling party circle" by the Korean media.

	» Lee Hae-chan (left) and Sohn Hak-kyu

On June 17, former Gyeonggi governor Sohn, who defected from the GNP in March, tried to become one of the presidential hopefuls from the pan-ruling party circle in an event to mark the launch of his supporters' group. "Pragmatic reformists and competent democratic forces should take action together," Sohn said. "I admit my failures with a frank and humble attitude," referring to Sohn's tenure at the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP). However, people close to the pan-ruling party circle assessed Sohn's remarks as an insufficient apology for previously aligning with the conservative faction.

On June 18, former unification minister Chung, who was also a former leader of the pro-government Uri Party, defected from the party. As a politician who has an influential stake in the Uri Party, Chung's leaving represents his determination toward the presidential election slated for this December. Chung's departure is expected to speed up the further disintegration of the Uri Party.

"Without a grand integration of the pan-ruling camp there is no future for democratic reformists. I'm committed to launch a new party via a grand integration by July at the latest," Chung said [recently/on the day of his defection from Uri].

In fact, unless Chung forms the new integrated party from the pan-ruling camp, he will find it difficult to even have a chance to become a presidential candidate. Sohn and Chung have been at odds with President Roh. So, their immediate task is how to overcome the so-called 'Roh Moo-hyun variable; namely, how to get past President Roh to court the president's support base.

	» Han Myeong-sook

Announcing her bid for president on June 18, former prime minister Han Myeong-sook emphasized 'communication' and 'harmony.' "I will become a president that communicates with the people," Han said. She hopes to get support from both former president Kim Dae-jung and President Roh. However, her political base is eclipsed by the political base of another former prime minister and potential candidate, Lee Hae-chan.

On June 19, the former prime minister Lee was to declare his bid for president. Lee is armed with several strengths, including a reputation as a skilled statesman. The fact that he is from the Chuncheong provinces could also be one of his strengths, as Korean presidential elections usually represent deep-seated rivalries between the Jeolla and Gyeongsang provinces. However, Lee's weakness is his continued political support from the 'pro-Roh' camp, as President Roh's approval ratings have been consistently low for the past year. Han, in fact, faces the same problem of potential political fallout due to continued support of her by the 'pro-Roh' camp.

Of course, the pool of presidential hopefuls from the pan-ruling party circle is still nebulous. There is still a complex political process yet to come in order to yield a single presidential candidate from the camp.

Looking into talks for the integration of a pan-ruling party circle, there are three groups. The first group, led by Rep. Chung Se-kyun, the current chairman of Uri Party, wants to create a new party, also including anti-GNP people. The second group is led by Rep. Park Sang-cheon, the leader of the Democratic Party and Rep. Kim Han-gill, the leader of the Neutral Reform Integration New Party and the former floor leader of the Uri party. The third group is led by a group of politicians who still hope to maintain the Uri Party as President Roh wants.

More than anything, the president hopefuls hold the key decision as to the way they will integrate into the political fold. Yet of all possible scenarios, the choice of Sohn, who wants to become a presidential hopeful but who is still outside of the pan-ruling party circle, is most important. Former Uri leader Chung seems to stand by the first group aimed at forming a new party.

Another important variable is the choice faced by the two former prime ministers, Lee and Han, who are weighing whether to join the group forming a new party or to remain at the Uri Party.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]