hankyoreh

The upcoming summit between President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il will help improve relations but will not end all problems facing the two Koreas, including the dispute over the North's nuclear ambitions, observers here said Wednesday.

The observers said the summit will provide an opportunity for Seoul to take the initiative in discussing ways to establish a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, but noted it will not lead to any concrete agreement.

"An immediate outcome we can think of is that it will help reduce destabilizing elements on the Korean Peninsula. It is possible that the Korean Peninsula, which has been called ' the tinderbox of Northeast Asia,' can become an engine for peace in the region," said Kim Young-soo, a political science professor at Seoul's Sogang University.

The professor also noted that the summit, the second of its kind, may help rewrite Pyongyang's reputation as a rogue state to a "peace-loving country."

The first inter-Korean summit was held in June 2000 between then President Kim Dae-jung and the reclusive North Korean leader and led to unprecedented cooperation and reconciliation between the Koreas, which technically remain in a state of war. But the outbreak of the dispute over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions in late 2002 has provided new obstacles for the countries.

Kim Sung-joo, a professor of political science at Sungkyunkwan University, said the Aug. 28-30 meeting between the South and North Korean heads of state in Pyongyang will help "institutionalize" inter-Korean summits and improve relations between the countries.

However, he said, the meeting will produce little progress unless the sides are able to hold serious discussions.

The summit, Kim said, "will not be any different from the first one unless the South and North Korean leaders hold in-depth discussions on military and security issues."

The Sogang University professor, Kim, also noted the need to address sensitive issues at the upcoming summit, but said the meeting is unlikely to produce any immediate outcomes on the issues, mainly because they need to be discussed at multilateral forums.

"As a matter of fact, the agenda of the summit could be simpler than we expect. I think it will be enough as long as the venue provides an opportunity for the sides to confirm each other's willingness (to move toward peace) rather than to discuss specific issues," he said.

Baek Jong-chun, the chief presidential secretary for unification, foreign and security policy, said Wednesday that the agenda of the upcoming summit has yet to be set, while working-level talks with North Korean officials are scheduled to discuss the issue.

Still, the North Korea observers said the summit will, at the minimum, have to include discussions on ways to further promote the reconciliation that followed the 2000 summit and expand cooperation between the countries.

Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korea studies at Dongguk University, said the meeting could produce more visible outcomes.

"I expect the sides will discuss ways to institutionalize and improve North-South relations, which may include establishing liaison offices," he said.

Others, however, said the South Korean president may not be able to offer what North Korea wants since the summit comes only about six months before his term ends.

The timing of the second inter-Korean summit is also sparking concerns, if not criticism, over its possible effect on the country's presidential election slated for December.

Cho Sung-woo, a standing co-chairman of the inter-Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation, said the summit comes much sooner than he had anticipated, as the government "apparently tried to avoid criticism over its impact on the outcome of the presidential election."

The Sogang University professor said the inter-Korean summit may provide an "official variable" through which the communist nation can exercise its direct influence on South Korean politics.

"It is hard to believe the North does not have an intention to guide South Korean politics in its direction. So in that sense, it comes at a very sensitive time, but still it was either now or never," said Koh, the professor at Dongguk University.
SEOUL, Aug. 8 (Yonhap News)