Summit could help or hurt presidential candidates

Posted on : 2007-10-06 11:32 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Liberals are expected to play up the summit’s positive points while conservatives are downplaying its impact

How will the results of the second inter-Korean summit impact the December 19 presidential election? Mixed reactions from political experts and politicians indicate that only time will tell, as candidates from both parties contemplate how and how much the summit issue should factor into their individual campaigns as they gear up for the final two months of the race.

The October 4 Joint Declaration calls for a number of follow-up measures. The prime ministers of the two Koreas will meet in November. Defense ministers will also meet separately next month. The possibility is high that North Korea and the United States will make swift progress in normalizing their relations. A team of U.S. experts will visit North Korea on October 11 to prepare for the disablement of North Korean nuclear program. A tug-of-war between ruling and opposition parties is also expected over parliamentary approval of the declaration.

It is no surprise that politics and external relations are coupled. The recent change on the Korean peninsula effected by the agreement reached at the summit just happens to coincide with the presidential election. So of course political analysts are wondering whether Lee Myung-bak, the front-runner in December’s election who has a big lead in opinion polls, will be hurt by the summit results. In other words, some have raised the question of whether liberal presidential hopefuls will be able to grab their chance and overtake Lee ahead of the December vote.

Political experts were divided on the question.

Park Sung-min, head of the political consulting firm, Min Planning, said “I don’t think it will have any direct or major impact. It’s a matter of how to deal with it. However, the Grand National Party didn’t strongly oppose the summit and doesn’t want to make the summit results an election issue. In contrast, the United New Democratic Party is losing momentum as its primary election is in turmoil. In 1992, U.S. citizens selected Clinton, who promised to foster the economy, instead of the senior Bush, who was credited with winning the Cold War. In December’s election, a similar situation may happen.”

Park said President Roh Moo-hyun’s approval rating could see a gain in the wake of the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. In addition, Lee’s image as a leader was slightly undermined after a meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush was canceled.

Kim Neung-goo, head of Ewincom, gave the following analysis: “It should have an impact. The summit helped people to recognize North Korea as the road to our survival. The chaebol also support inter-Korean economic cooperation. Voters may think the next president will be a president of the South-North federation era. Coincidentally, the presidential candidates of the newly-launched UNDP‘s candidate will be announced. The National Assembly will start a process of verifying Lee’s quality as a presidential candidate.” Kim said that the gap between the GNP and the liberal parties would also be narrowed.

Politicians also expressed mixed opinions on the question and most of their analysis was based on previously-held expectations.

The GNP saw no impact. Before the summit, there was a sense of caution in the GNP. However, no such sentiment was dotted among GNP lawmaker after the summit.

Rep. Park Jin of the GNP said, “Though it’s insufficient in matters of denuclearization and abductees, the overall stance is equivalent to ours. People are also calm. It’s difficult to say that it will have any major ramifications on the presidential election.”

Rep. Nam Kyung-phil of the GNP said, “If we raise the question, the impact will become bigger. There will be no impact if we assess it fairly. The GNP should not deal with the matter emotionally.”

In contrast, the liberal parties are gearing up to exploit the summit results. On October 5, Oh Choong-il, the head of the UNDP, proposed that the leaders of the five liberal parties meet to map out the measures to be taken after the summit.

Rep. Kim Hyo-seok, the floor leader of the UNDP, said, “If the conservative, Cold War-minded GNP wins the presidential election, all of our efforts will evaporate.”

Presidential hopefuls of the recently-formed UNDP have made an effort to exploit the results of the summit in their campaigns.

In a press briefing held on October 4, former Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan said, “A peaceful and democratic party should win the presidential election in order to push ahead with the achievements (of the summit).”

Rep. Lee Hwa-young, who assists Lee Hae-chan, said, “President Roh Moo-hyun’s approval rating is expected to rise above 40 percent. It will be a positive factor for Lee Hae-chan’s campaign.”

Chung Dong-young and Sohn Hak-kyu are also supporters of the sunshine policy of engagement with North Korea. Officials at both Chung and Sohn’s campaigns said it was difficult to comment either on the possible advantages or disadvantages to their respective campaigns following the summit.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

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