hankyoreh

Following a joint declaration made at the second inter-Korean summit on October 2-4, inter-Korean relations are expected to accelerate in accordance with recent progress made at the six-party nuclear talks and will likely center around these two axes with increasing momentum.

Each axis is constructed with a mixture of national-international aspects and military-economic components. The six-party foreign ministers’ talks anticipated to take place in Beijing, either at the end of October or the beginning of November, and the inter-Korean prime ministers’ talks to be held in Seoul in November will serve as a “vessel” to contain the flow of changes.

Inter-Korean relations used to function in a vicious cycle of military guarantees and economic cooperation. Without military guarantees, inter-Korean economic cooperation could not happen, but the North would not provide military guarantees without inter-Korean economic cooperation. In particular, the problem of military guarantees worked as an obstacle to the opening of the Gyeongui and Donghae rail lines.

The two issues should be resolved at the same time. President Roh Moo-hyun and his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-il agreed to upgrade the status of the existing Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee to the Joint Committee for Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation, to be headed by deputy prime minister-level officials. It is natural for a central consultation body to be upgraded to prime minister-level talks from minister-level talks. At a Cabinet meeting on October 5, President Roh stressed the need to strategically station the North Korean negotiation system. He also told cabinet members to divide the issues into minister-level talks and strategize their operation.

At the same time, inter-Korean relations are somewhat free from the North Korean nuclear issue, which has hindered them since 2002. Both have now entered a favorable phase. Besides, as the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula has the goals of multilateral security in Northeast Asia and a peace regime on the peninsula, another axis of change on the Korean peninsula is being formed. The six-party talks stated this via the September 19 joint statement and will be the basis for the future of inter-Korean relations.

In this respect, if the six-nation foreign ministers’ talks launch a separate forum of parties related to the peace regime on the Korean peninsula, the three- or four-way summit can start negotiations on the peace regime by declaring an end to the war.

In this context, Foreign Minister Song Min-soon on October 7 said that according to the progress of denuclearization of the peninsula, the related heads of state will be able to declare the beginning of negotiations on the termination of the war. Considering that the three- or four-way talks will be held around the end of December when the disablement of the North’s nuclear program is completed on the Korean peninsula, it is possible that Jeju Island will be the venue of the summit. If the three- or four-way talks are realized, the establishment of a peace regime on the peninsula will be accelerated.

The United States has long emphasized that the denuclearization of the peninsula must precede the establishment of a peace regime. According to this, the three- or four-way summit will likely be a stage in the negotiation process requiring that Chairman Kim Jong-il decide on transferring the second step of nuclear disablement to the third step of abolishment.

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