hankyoreh

Although there had been smooth sailing in inter-Korean relations ever since the second summit between the leaders of the two Koreas in October last year, a yellow light has suddenly appeared to slow things down. A delay in a process initiated by a six-nation forum on the denuclearization of North Korea, as well as the North’s hesitation to engage in inter-Korean relations so close to the change of administration in the South, representing the first shift from left to right in ten years, seems as though it is cause for concern.

The first round of working-level discussions about railway cooperation between South and North Korea, which had been scheduled for January 22-23, has been delayed by the North. The delay, seen by the North as a “proper decision,” has most likely resulted from an announcement by President-elect Lee Myung-bak’s transition team that it will reconsider large-scale economic cooperation projects with the North.

On January 7, the transition team and South Korea’s Unification Ministry agreed to link large-scale, inter-Korean economic cooperation projects with progress in efforts to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs. At the moment, however, no visible progress has been made in the six-party process convened to resolve the issue due to a stalemate over the North’s promised declaration of its nuclear programs. Amid the uncertainties over the six-party talks, North Korea may have decided that results would not be forthcoming if it were to participate in the first round of inter-Korean talks of the new year.

Another announcement by the transition team about its plan to close the Unification Ministry and merge it with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade also caused concern in the North, analysts say. For North Korea, it would be difficult to continue the momentum in the inter-Korean talks with officials at the South’s Unification Ministry so close to its planned closure. Ko Yoo-hwan, a North Korea expert at Dongkuk University, said, “The incoming administration has taken an ambiguous approach, with no specific sign that it will implement the agreements reached at the 2007 inter-Korean summit. The new administration should say something because the North’s decision to delay the talks has signaled that it will wait for the incoming administration to clarify its position,” Ko said.

Since October, North Korea has stopped criticizing President-elect Lee, which is a change from the stream of criticism it had previously directed at Lee during his candidacy. In an editorial written jointly by the nation’s three state-controlled newspapers on New Year’s Day, the North emphasized that the South should implement the agreements made at the October 4 summit and continue moving forward with inter-Korean economic cooperation projects.



Government officials described the North as being in a “wait-and-see mode, with reservations .” One official said, “Unless President-elect Lee Myung-bak sends a clear message or generates some momentum, inter-Korean relations may falter after Lee takes office.”

In the wake of the delay in the inter-Korean railway talks, the continuation of work on other inter-Korean projects for the rest of this month remains unclear. The two Koreas had agreed to hold eight meetings this month, including a joint survey for construction of a highway to the Gaeseong (Kaesong) Industrial Complex and another joint survey for a planned special economic zone in and around Haeju Port.


However, it is too early to say that North Korea will be the first to break away from the negotiating table. A second government official said, “North Korea will wait for news on the new administration’s North Korea policy and the situation in the six-party talks. However, it will be problematic unless six-party talks begins by the end of February.”

A third official said, “It’s is too early to judge the atmosphere around the situation. Though North Korea may not want to be blamed for breaking away from the negotiating table, the table will collapse if the South’s new administration decides to officially join the U.S.-led missile defense program or the Proliferation Security Initiative,” the third official said. North Korea has threatened South Korea over the possibility that it might join either of the two U.S.-led initiatives, prospects that have been contemplated recently by Lee’s transition team.

In an aid-for-disarmament agreement reached in February, and solidified at the inter-Korean summit in October, North Korea was to have disabled its nuclear facilities and provided a full declaration of its nuclear programs by the end of 2007. North Korea is in the process of disabling its one, and only, reactor at Yongbyon, but it missed the declaration deadline, which is considered to be a crucial part of the denuclearization process, saying that an earlier list was sufficient. The North now has until just before the inauguration of President-elect Lee Myung-bak to provide a full declaration of its nuclear programs, including information on controversial uranium enrichment and plutonium programs. Should North Korea follow through on its commitments, made under an agreement by a six-nation forum which also includes the United States, Japan, China and Russia, it is to receive one million tons of heavy fuel oil or its equivalent in economic aid or diplomatic concessions.


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