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President-elect Lee Myung-bak’s nominations for his ministers of security, unification and foreign affairs are virtually complete.

The president-elect, who will assume office on February 25, is likely to appoint Yu Myung-hwan, 62, a career diplomat, as his foreign minister. Lee Sang-hee, 63, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is highly likely to be named as the defense minister, and Nam Joo-hong, 56, a university professor, is likely to be appointed as unification minister. Earlier, the president-elect named Kim Byung-kook, 48, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Korea University, as senior presidential secretary on foreign and security policy.

The conservative president-elect has not yet announced the list of new cabinet ministers officially because of ongoing negotiations with the current majority liberal party on shutting down certain government agencies.

The expected nominees for Lee’s foreign and security ministers could be characterized as U.S.-educated, but not as specialists on North Korea. Though the four nominees could also be categorized as conservative, there is a difference in the degree to which this applies to each one. What is really worrisome to some analysts is that it is uncertain as to which of them will play a leading role in foreign and security policy.

Overall, the anticipated nominations are in line with the president-elect’s policy of strengthening relations with the United States, while there is less focus on North Korean affairs. These policies can be compared with those of the administrations of former President Kim Dae-jung and his successor Roh Moo-hyun, who let unification specialists such as Lim Dong-won and Lee Jong-seok play a leading role in foreign and security affairs.

If we take a look at the expected nominees, the president-elect’s intentions can be seen. Kim Byung-kook, the nominee for senior presidential secretary for foreign and security affairs, graduated from a high school in the United States and studied economics and political science at Harvard University. Yu Myung-hwan, the current ambassador to Japan, is cited as being one of the officials in the foreign ministry who is a specialist on the United States. Lee Sang-hee, a seasoned military general who is widely expected to lead the defense ministry, is also considered to be a “pro-U.S., conservative” figure. Nam Joo-hong, the Kyonggi University professor who is likely to be named as the unification minister, is not a specialist on North Korea, but a security expert. In particular, Nam has been pessimistic over diplomatic negotiations on the denuclearization of North Korea. Nam, who published the book, “There Is No Unification,” is said to be hawkish toward North Korea. Therefore, some critics say that Nam is an inappropriate choice to head of the ministry in charge of managing relations with North Korea.

In the areas of foreign and security policy, there is likely to be confusion as Yu, who is known for approaching issues with a kind of bureaucratic pragmatism, and Kim, who is known for his academic idealism, may struggle to grab a leading role. One government official said, “Though there may be a different type of policy rift, compared with the early days of President Roh Moo-hyun’s administration, the role of the foreign ministry, under the leadership of Yu Myung-hwan, is likely to be expanded.”

Many observers expect the new government to forge a military alliance with the United States. Another government official said, “There is a possibility that the new government may take a different approach on the U.S.-led missile defense system and a program aimed at stopping the spread of weapons of mass destruction.”

An foreign policy expert, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said, “South Korea’s diplomatic environment is undergoing a structural change, given its stronger relations with China and Europe. I’m worried how the new administration’s theory of maintaining a traditional alliance with the U.S. will fit the changing diplomatic environment.”

Another expert said, “It’s an undeniable fact that South Korea’s diplomacy is dependant upon its capacity to influence North Korea. The biggest problem is that the new government has a lack of understanding about the weight of inter-Korean relations in the context of foreign and security policy.”

The key to understanding the new administration’s foreign and security policy is the “United States,” and there is no “North Korea” in sight, they say.




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