hankyoreh

May 24.

President Lee Myung-bak began a statement to the people Monday regarding the sinking of the Cheonan with the words, “The political situation on the Korean Peninsula is facing a momentous turning point.” President Lee also said, “things will be change starting now” and pledged to “take resolute measures to hold North Korea accountable.”

Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea or Blue House) spokesman Lee Dong-kwan explained these remarks by saying, “The pre-Cheonan and post-Cheonan Korean Peninsula must be different,” and called the president’s words “a symbolic way of saying that North Korea must change as well if our response is to change.”

One Cheong Wa Dae official likened the president’s North Korea measures to pushing a “reset” button. In other words, the president finally voiced his intention start over from square one, effectively abandoning the relationship of inter-Korean interchange and cooperation perpetuated over 22 years since the Roh Tae-woo administration’s July 7 Declaration in 1988.

Indeed, the North Korea measures announced by President Lee and by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ministry of National Defense and Ministry of Unification on Monday could be considered “ultra-hardline pressure on North Korea, potentially resulting military clashes be damned.”

The Lee Myung-bak administration has made the decision to cut off all inter-Korean interchange and trade except for support to North Korean infants, forbidden North Korean merchant vessel traffic in South Korean waters, and made it clear that it will exercise its right to immediate military self-defense in the event of an armed invasion by North Korea. The administration has essentially presented every means at its disposal independently or internationally with the exception of direct military retaliation for the Cheonan attack.

The preconditions the president presented to North Korea on Monday for improving inter-Korean relations were also extremely stringent. President Lee demanded an apology for the Cheonan incident from North Korean authorities and the immediate punishment of those responsible, citing this as “the basic obligation that North Korea must first fulfill.”

A key Cheong Wa Dae official said that a North Korean apology and punishment of the responsible parties was “the minimum condition” and added, “The sanction measures against North Korea will continue until the denuclearization process we have been demanding of North Korea is under way and the country pursues openness.”

One problem experts have cited is that in light of the history of inter-Korean relations, there is little chance of North Korea bending in the face of such measures. Experts have said that with a counter-response from North Korea almost certainly on the horizon, there is a significant possibility of the Korean Peninsula devolving into a Northeast Asian “danger zone” as the risk of an accidental military clash between North Korea and South Korea mounts.

While the Lee administration has already stepped up its emphasis on the alliance with the U.S., there is also a strong likelihood of a correlating deterioration in relations with China. Heightening military tensions on the peninsula could also have negative effects for the economy, as foreign investment shrinks and trade with China is stymied by deteriorating South Korea-China relations.

Some observers are predicting that the Lee administration’s pressure on North Korea will ultimately be a self-defeating policy position.

“Measures to make North Korea suffer could in fact make small to mid-sized South Korean businesses suffer more,” said former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun. “There are around ten times as many South Korean vessels traveling through North Korean waters on their way to and from China and Russia than there are North Korean vessels traveling through South Korean waters, and businesses engaging in trade with North Korea have nowhere else to go.”

Other observers are taking note of the political and social ramifications in South Korea.

“Just as the Bush administration in the U.S. pushed forward with a neoconservative bent in the wake of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the Lee Myung-bak administration could attempt to administer not only a new North Korea policy but the domestic situation as well with a ‘post-Cheonan’ military and national security logic,” said a foreign affairs and national security expert.

He predicted, “Division and distrust will grow in Korean society.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]