hankyoreh

mayoral candidate of the main opposition Democratic Party

Opposition parties, too, which claimed that there was a hidden vote that was not being detected in opinion polls during the campaign period, were shocked at the result. All of Yeouido was surprised.

It is not an exaggeration to say that modern democratic politics runs according to public opinion on major issues. The ruling officials have no choice but to run the country in accordance with opinion. This is also the way to attain a positive verdict in an election.

The results of the June 2 regional election, however, revealed the extent of the difference between the “exterior,” public opinion polls, and the “core,” public sentiment. It was revealed that public opinion polls were unable to properly read the so-called “floor feeling” that politicians feel on the scene. With the exception of exit polls by the three broadcasters, the surveys of virtually all pollsters were a mess. One can see there are structural issues with opinion polls.

Some criticize that this result shows that a serious impediment has developed in the operation of our democratic system, in that opinion polls have been the usual means to determine public opinion. They ask whether one of the fundamental causes of the ruling party’s inability to communicate and arrogance is mistaken public opinion polls. Fundamental doubts, too, have been raised about the president’s approval rating which hovered around 50 percent. Why has this happened?

To begin, there exists a serious flaw in the system of opinion polling itself. When most people use cell phones and are registered with Internet phones, polling only those with registered home phone numbers has limits. Classifying by sex, age, occupation and region when extracting the sample also has a limited ability to reflect the power of those who actively intend to vote.

“Pollsters are caught in inertia,” said Chonbuk National University Professor Park Dong-cheon. “If someone highlights the distortions of the current polling methods, then they must push for a way to change it, but the trend has been to simply follow the existing practice.”

Experts also point to analysis that cites the “Minerva Effect.” According to this theory, the people, having witnessed the arrest of blogger Mineva for “spreading false information” in his posts on the Internet analyzing the economic crisis, have been avoiding expressing their opinion.

“The accuracy of an opinion poll is proportional to the degree of democratic development,” said Yun Hee-ung of the Korea Society Opinion Institute. “There has been a trend of people worrying about disadvantages when expressing their frank opinion in a poll, and it is highly possible that timid respondents have been highly influenced.”

“Since people fear that if they express their opinion in a poll, a record will be left, they only criticize Lee Myung-bak to those around them,” said former Uri Party Lawmaker Choi Jae-cheon. “As a result, a chain structure has been created in which opinion polls are distorted, and those distorted results lead a confident government to overreact with a perceived mandate, which voters react against at the polls.”

Some have also stated that the media, through opinion polls, has worsened the illusion while creating a conservative cartel.

“The conservative press, while ignoring the opinions of countless people demanding political change, have not conducted polls on issues disadvantageous to them and have not written articles about them,” said Lee Chang-hyeon, professor of Kookmin University. “Consoling themselves with only a conservative agenda, critical awareness and progressive agendas have disappeared.” Professor Lee also said that the conservative press, conservative political parties and conservative citizens have conducted “instant opinion poll” events, holding parties for themselves.

In other words, after seeing only what they want to see and announcing only what they see, they have been unable to see the “will to judge” that remains as sediment at the bottom of the river of public opinion.

The Grand National Party’s total failure to predict this crushing defeat is due not only to high poll performances by ruling party candidates, but also to the fact that President Lee Myung-bak’s approval rating has been consistently measured at around 50 percent.

Some analysts believe this is because the Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea or Blue House) is unable to correctly determine the meaning of approval ratings.

Cho Young-hyu, director of Poll & Poll, recollected that, five days before the regional elections on May 31, 2006 in which the ruling Uri Party suffered a resounding defeat, a survey showed President Roh Moo-hyun’s approval rating to be 47 percent.

“An approval rating in the 50s was not a particularly strong figure,” said Cho.

Discussing the elasticity of presidential approval ratings, Cho said, “Directly following the Uri Party’s poor election performance, however, Roh’s ratings plummeted to the mid-20s, before dropping into the low 10s following the Uri party’s split.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]