hankyoreh

By Jung Hyuk-june

A study by the Bank of Korea’s Institute for Monetary and Economic Research (IMER) shows that employment insecurity and costly housing prices are turning into the primary factors behind South Korea’s low birthrate and aging society as they lead single men and women to delay marriage.
An IMER report titled “Study of the Causes of the Low Birth Rate and Aging of the Population,” which analyzed data from Statistics Korea, the Labor Ministry, and Kookmin Bank, showed that a one percentage point increase in the temporary employment rate resulted in 300 fewer marriages and a 0.23 to 0.40 drop in the number of marriage per 1,000 people aged 15 to 39. There were also 835 to 1,040 fewer marriages and a drop of 0.18 to 0.42 in the marriage rate per 1,000 people with every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate.
“Employment insecurity, which rose sharply in the wake of the foreign exchange crisis, has given rise to income imbalance and is limiting young men and women’s participation in the marriage market,” said Lee Sang-ho, director of IMER’s research planning and coordination team. “Employment insecurity is functioning to decrease the number of marriages and increase people’s age at their first marriage.”
Rising housing prices were also found to have a considerable impact on marriage. In particular, key money deposit amounts were seen to have a greater impact than purchase prices. The study showed that a one percentage point increase in housing prices resulted in 78 fewer marriages, compared to 100 fewer marriages for a one percent increase in key money deposit amounts.
“It is mainly the male who is responsible for housing costs, which account for a large part of marriage expenses, and rising housing prices are leading to higher marrying ages as marriage is put off in order to save up the money,” Lee said.
“The later a couple’s age when married, the lower the birth rate, leading to an aging population structure,” he added.
Indeed, a Statistics Korea study showed that the average marrying age as of late 2009 was 31.6 years for men and 28.7 years for women, a large increase over the respective figures of 27.8 years and 24.8 years in 1990. During the same period, the unemployment rate rose from 2.4 percent to 3.4 percent. Also, the housing price index rose from 108.6 to 163 for sales during the same period, and from 88.9 to 169.8 for key money deposits, a nearly twofold increase.
“Mitigating the low birth rate and aging of society will also require cutting child-rearing expenses and expanding child care facilities, but it is essential that we improve employment security and reduce the unemployment rate, as they are crucial variables determining marriage at a more fundamental level,” Lee said.
“Stabilization of key money deposit prices is especially important, in that they factor more into marriage decisions than residence prices,” he added.
Men and women were also found to differ substantially in the effect of employment and income on their decision to marry. Men with lower income married in lower numbers, while women with higher income were less likely to marry. For men, the lowest marriage probability was found among those in the “miscellaneous” job category without income, followed by the unemployed and temporary workers. Meanwhile, the marriage rate was lowest for high-income, self-employed women and highest for women in the “miscellaneous” job category.

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