hankyoreh

South Gyeongsang on April 27. (Photo by Lee Jong-keun)

By Lee You Ju-hyun, Staff Writer

With his victory in Bundang, main opposition Democratic Party Chairman Sohn Hak-kyu entered the fast track for a run in the 2012 presidential election. Previously, he had failed to garner major popular interest with his protest of the GNP budget railroading or his “Long March of Hope," during which he napped at village centers across the country. But by showing the determination to run in the GNP heartland, he became a major story and showed ample potential as a presidential candidate. Following confirmation of his victory Wednesday, Sohn's supporters chanted, "President Sohn Hak-kyu."


Han Gwi-yeong, a former senior researcher at the Korea Society Opinion Institute, said that by running for the Bundang-B seat, Sohn "instilled in the people of South Korea to the thought of, 'This is someone who takes the tough road in spite of the risks.'"


"South Koreans will look at him more seriously now as a major contender for the next presidency," Han added.


Following the by-elections, Sohn's camp predicted that his support ratings might surpass the so-called "15-percent curse.” Spokesman Lee Choon-suak predicted that Sohn's support rating would rise by 10 percentage points over their current level.

"His value has risen in the greater Seoul area in particular,” Lee said.

"The reason the Honam people supported Sohn during the Oct. 3 party convention last year was because of his potential as a presidential contender," a DP official said. The official predicted that Honam support for Sohn would grow more solid as a result of the by-elections victory.


But Sohn needs to address many issues before the presidential election. Lawmaker Shin Hak-yong, one of his closest associates, said, "Even if his support ratings do rise in the future, the key is whether he can sustain that."

"In order to stand out as a presidential candidate, Sohn Hak-kyu has to engage in actions that are far-reaching and leave a deep impression,” Shin added.

Observers say Sohn's emphasis on the weight of responsibility in his comments following his victory Wednesday can be read along the same lines. At the time, Sohn said, "I will not allow myself to get carried away with victory, but go about examining popular welfare and establishing justice with a humbler stance."


The results appear to have deeply wounded PPP chairman Rhyu Si-min, whose plans to get his party into the National Assembly and increase its voice in opposition party solidarity discussions ahead of next year's general and presidential elections faced major setbacks. A key PPP official expressed concern that the party's existing base might be shaken, and another said, "I think we are probably going to face strong demands for integration from the Democratic Party."


The results also bode ill for Rhyu's chances as a presidential contender. In particular, his ground is likely to narrow with Sohn's win in Bundang-B. While Rhyu himself did not run as a candidate, the defeat recalls the Gyeonggi gubernatorial election on June 2, 2010, when he won a contest with the DP only to lose to the GNP candidate in the main election. Analysts are predicting that Rhyu's inability to broaden his scope, already cited as a weakness, is likely to become more of an issue. Observers are also predicting that he will face demands to take responsibility for divisions in the pro-Roh Moo-hyun group.


On Wednesday, Rhyu watched the vote count from Lee Bong-soo's election office in Gimhae's Jangyu Township before leaving without a word around 10:30 pm when the margin opened up to over 1,000 votes. At 12:30 am, he posted a message on his Twitter account reading, "I am very grateful. And I'm so sorry. I made a terrible mistake."