hankyoreh

By Song Chae Kyung-hwa　

Analyses on future trends in public opinion on the Seoul mayoral race are varied, with polls showing Grand National Party (GNP) candidate Na Kyung-won leading opposition candidate Park Won-soon by as much as 5.5 percentage points over last weekend.

Kyung Hee University Political Science Professor Kim Min-jeon said, “South Korean voters tend not to talk about it when they do not support the ruling party, so there have always been hidden opposition votes in the opinion polls.”

“The hidden votes may be fewer than we saw with the last local elections because it is late in the administration’s term, but they are still there, and we should not rush to predict the election outcome based on the current results,” Kim added.

Kim also said the turnaround for Na could be attributed to “negative strategy,” since Park is a new figure who is not part of the political establishment.

“But things are still favorable for Park, as the election is taking shape as a verdict against the Lee Myung-bak administration and a Grand National Party Mayor of Seoul,” Kim said.

The GNP is also working to manage its response, contending that Na’s turnaround in support differs from actual public opinion. In a telephone interview with the Hankyoreh, GNP Secretary General Kim Jung-kwon said, “We still need to view her as being about three to four percentage points behind.”

Analysts said this is because the side trailing in opinion polls has an advantage in last-minute rallying.

Few observers disagreed that the key to determining the outcome of the election would be the voter turnout.

Yonsei University Political Science Professor Yang Seung-ham said, “Instead of relying on opinion polls, we need to look at what is underlying them.”

“This election will be determined by voter turnout,” Yang added.

“At the moment, it appears very probably that the party candidate Na will win, but things swing in Park’s favor when younger voters show up and voter turnout exceeds 50%,” he said.

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