Park Geun-hye’s frontrunner status jeopardized by Ahn, by-election loss

Posted on : 2011-10-27 10:13 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
While likely to secure the GNP nomination, Park’s wide opinion poll lead will likely narrow

By Kim Jong-cheol, Senior Staff Writer 

 

“Park Geun-hye’s runaway lead in the presidential elections definitely appears to be in jeopardy.”

Speaking on the day of Wednesday’s by-election, a lawmaker and associate of former Grand National Party Chairwoman Park Geun-hye who asked to remain anonymous was unreserved in talking about the crisis in her support levels as a presidential contender.

“We cannot take this trend lightly and viewed it a singular example of fickleness,” the lawmaker said, adding, “Park’s feature looks dim if she responds to this incorrectly.”

Mention of a change in Park’s overwhelming support levels began early last month with the unexpected emergence of Seoul National University Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology Dean Ahn Cheol-soo as a rival. Once Ahn withdrew from contention in the mayoral race to make way for attorney Park Won-soon, he found himself a leading presidential contender overnight. Various opinion polls have support levels for Ahn roughly equal to those for Park in virtual contests.

Observers say the outcome of Wednesday’s mayoral by-election, far from reversing this trend, is likely to spur it on in the immediate future. The reason is that GNP mayoral candidate Na Kyung-won lost by a substantial margin to Park, the opposition candidate supported by Ahn, even though Park Geun-hye provided her unstinting support to Na, traveling all around Seoul to stump for her.

And whereas Park embarked on an all-out campaign for Na, Ahn only provided a minor expression of support with a single visit to Park Won-soon’s election campaign office. The outcome is a devastating blow to Park’s reputation as the “election queen.”

But the prevailing view among observers is that Park’s status as the ruling party’s sole presidential contender is likely to continue unchanged, whatever upheavals may occur.

A second-term GNP lawmaker with a major position in the party noted that after trailing early on, the party took local government head elections in eight regions where Park stumped for the candidate, including Yeongnam and Chungcheong.

“Since we have seen that Park Geun-hye has the same power as ever, there is no other option but to make her the focus in next year’s general and presidential elections,” the lawmaker said.

Political critic Ko Sung-kook said, “While the idea of Park Geun-hye being invincible may be shaken somewhat, there is no alternative for conservatives, so the ruling party is likely going to reorganize around her.”

Indeed, strong calls are emerging from the GNP for Park to take a central role in party management.

But more observers are predicting that Park will move cautiously for the time being, surveying reorganizations in the opposition and other aspects of the political situation rather than moving directly into the forefront.

An associate of Park said, “Her visit to Na Kyung-won’s office a few days ago to deliver a policy notebook is symbol of the politics of trust she has always emphasized, and it is an indication of how she is going to proceed going ahead.”

The recent establishment of a Facebook account where Park appears as the character of “The Notebook Princess” (www.facebook.com/#!/parkgeunhye.kr) is another indication of her efforts to increase communication with the public through trust.

Analysts said Park is likely to determine the tenor of her response while observing the actions of Ahn Cheol-soo, who is widely recognized as the leading opposition contender for the presidency.  

“It was difficult for her before, because she did not have a picture of the opposition candidate she would have to face in next year’s presidential election,” said another associate of Park‘s. “So it did become easier in a sense when Ahn Chul-soo surfaced early on as a potential opponent.”

“At a time like this, you need to be taking the lead in changes, and it is worrisome because Park Geun-hye’s character is such that she is very likely to respond passively, watching for trends with the opposition and with Ahn in particular,” the associate added.

  

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]