Survey finds rising support for third-party candidates

Posted on : 2011-10-31 10:20 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
The shift has weakened support for leading presidential contender Park Geun-hye and the DP as voters seek a third option
 while the gray portion of the graph represents those against it. Undecided survey participants are represented by light gray.
while the gray portion of the graph represents those against it. Undecided survey participants are represented by light gray.

By Lee Tae-hee, Staff Writer 

 

A survey on political support ratings found a 39.3% rating for a hypothetical “third option of Ahn Cheol-soo and Park Won-soon,” roughly equal to the 40.0% rating enjoyed by Park Geun-hye and other ruling Grand National Party (GNP) politicians.

The rating for DP Chairman Sohn Hak-kyu, Supreme Council member Chung Dong-young, and other Democratic Party figures stood at 11.1%, while progressive parties had a preference rating of just 1.9%. Observers are interpreting the results as showing the possibility for the “third option” to become a prominent presence in the political scene if the opposition parties do not effect changes and reorganization.

The study was conducted Saturday by the Hankyoreh and Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI). A total of 800 men and women aged 20 or older from around the country were questioned in a random digit dialing telephone survey. The margin of error was 5%, with a confidence level of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Support for the DP was found hovering at the 25.2% level in the Honam region, a traditional DP stronghold, while support for the Ahn Cheol-soo/Park Won-soon option was fully 54.5%. In the Busan-South Gyeongsang-Ulsan region, support for the third option was 38.4%, or about equal to the 38.3% preference for the GNP.

Preference for the third option was even more noticeable among respondents in their 20s and 30s, with support given by 52.6% of those in their twenties and 51.2% of those in their thirties.

Political preference services are seen as a measure for future political potential rather than present support.

KSOI chief analyst Yoon Hee-woong, who conducted the study, said, “The arrival of Ahn Cheol-soo and the third option was a blow to the Grand National Party, but it looks likely to deal an even greater blow to the Democratic Party and progressive parties.”

Participants in a discussion Sunday on the Oct. 26 by-election organized by the Hankyoreh attributed the trend to changes in the segment between the ages of 20 and 40 and the weakness of the current opposition.

Korea Political Academy Director Kim Man-heum attributed the situation to a lack of leadership and charisma among the opposition.

“What enabled Ahn Cheol-soo and Park Won-soon to move to the forefront of politics was the political vacuum that arose as opposition parties in a process of reorganization [following the death of former President Kim Dae-jung] met with a leadership crisis,” Kim said.

Analysts are interpreting the survey results that show more than half the DP’s support base shifting to the third option as indicative of this situation.

A head-to-head virtual presidential race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo found the former GNP chairwoman with a 45.9% support rating, compared to 48.0% for the Seoul National University Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology dean. This marks the first time Ahn has overtaken Park in a virtual race conducted by the Hankyoreh. Analysts interpreted it as reflecting the effects of Park Won-soon’s election as mayor of Seoul.

  

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