Ahn Cheol-soo shows strong poll numbers against Park Geun-hye

Posted on : 2011-12-30 11:15 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
50% of people polled say they would vote for unified opposition candidate in next general election

By Kim Bo-hyeop, Staff Writer

Despite keeping a distance recently from politics, Ahn Cheol-soo still enjoys strong support and political influence, a survey showed.

The land-line and mobile phone random digit dialing opinion survey Tuesday by the Hankyoreh and Korea Society Opinion Institute, which examined one thousand voters from across the country, found the Seoul National University Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology dean coming out well ahead of Grand National Party emergency countermeasures committee chairwoman Park Geun-hye in a hypothetical race, with 49.3% of votes compared to Park's 44.7%.

The 4.6 percentage point difference was the largest observed in any of the four surveys conducted by the Hankyoreh since September 1, when Ahn was first mentioned in connection with politics after rumors of a possible run for the Seoul mayorship. A September 17 survey had him 8.7 percentage points behind Park's 50.8% support rate, which narrowed to 3.4 percentage points in an October 15 survey. Two weeks later, a survey on October 29 had Ahn moving into the lead with 48% to Park's 45.9%.

A question about a hypothetical race in which Ahn decided not to run but put his support behind an opposition party presidential contender showed another close battle, with the opposition candidate 5.9 percentage points behind Park at 39.5% to her 45.4%. Some 15.2% of respondents declared themselves "unsure," more than double the 6% giving the same answer in a hypothetical two-way race between Ahn and Park, indicating an increase of nearly 10% in the number of respondents saying they would withhold judgment if Ahn is not a candidate.

Ahn trailed Park within the margin of error in a multiple candidate race, with 28.0% to her 30.8%. The two of them were followed by Roh Moo-hyun Foundation chairman Moon Jae-in with 6.2%, Gyeonggi Gov. Kim Moon-soo with 3.2%, United Progressive Party co-chairman Rhyu Si-min with 2.9%, former Democratic Party chairman Sohn Hak-kyu with 2.6%, and former Liberty Forward Party president Lee Hoi-chang with 2.4%.

Half the respondents said they would voted for a unified opposition candidate in next year's general elections, suggesting relatively favorable conditions for the opposition in regions where candidates are being consolidated. In response to a question asking whom they would support in a one-on-one contest between a GNP candidate and opposition candidate in the April general election, some 50.1% said they would vote for the unified opposition candidate, compared to 32.1% for the GNP candidate.

In particular, more respondents from the Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang region, where the DP is making special efforts, said they would cast their vote for the opposition candidate than for the GNP, at 42.6% to 39.6%.

The GNP had the highest party support rate at 28.8%, followed by the UDP with 24.1%, the UPP with 3.1%, and the New Progressive Party with 1.9%. With the UDP set to pass the GNP following integration, the UPP was looking for a support rating of over 10% following its own, but the survey results fell short of these expectations.

Analysts said the feeble UPP support rating of just over 3% owes to its underwhelming presence, with a failure to produce an independent voice on the political stage since integration.

The UDP enjoyed higher support than the GNP in Seoul, at 26.4% to 24.0%. The UPP also had stronger support there than for the nation as a whole, at 3.9%.

But in Gyeonggi and Incheon, where the UDP and UPP are hoped to carry a large number of National Assembly seats, the GNP led the UDP by 24.3% to 18.2%, while the UPP drew support of just 2.9%.

Among younger voters, the GNP was supported by just 18.1% of respondents in their twenties and 12.7% of those in their thirties, compared to 30.2% and 24.1%, respectively, for the Democratic Party. Fully 50.7% of people in their thirties declined to give an answer.

The survey results had a 95% confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.

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