Shifting expectations for presidential election

Posted on : 2012-03-06 16:40 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Outcome of April‘s contest seen by experts as crucial precursor to December’s vote

By Im In-tack, Staff writer

A follow-up survey of political experts found a majority predicting an opposition party victory over the incumbent party in this year‘s presidential election.

But the gap narrowed to nine-to-six from the 16-to-three observed in a survey in December. Analysts said this reflected a change in the situation with the leading role taken by New Frontier Party (NFP or Saenuri Party) emergency measures committee chairwoman Park Geun-hye and the “political silence” of Ahn Chul-soo, dean of Seoul National University Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology.

Nine of the 26 experts questioned in the second survey, which concluded Sunday, predicted a victory for the opposition party candidate in the presidential election. Ahn and Democratic Unity Party (DUP) permanent counselor Moon Jae-in each received three votes, while another three participants said any unified opposition candidate would get elected. The same choices earned seven, five, and four votes, respectively, in the first survey.

Meanwhile, six participants, one of them an NFP candidate, predicted a victory for Park, double the three who made the same prediction in the first survey. The results indicate that the prevailing expectation is still for an opposition victory, but that a greater number of people are foreseeing a win by Park.

Particularly noteworthy is the fact that 16 experts changed their predictions from the first survey. One withdrew a prediction for a Park victory from the first survey, compared to three for Ahn and two for Moon. Meanwhile, of the participants who said they did not know during the first survey, four went for Park, two for a unified opposition candidate, one for Ahn, and one for Moon.

Analysts said the results seemed to reflect appraisals of the NFP and DUP’s recent nomination and reform processes. Kyung Hee University professor Chung Jin-young, who predicted an Ahn win back in December, explained that Park “seems prepared to lower herself and jump around at the ground level, and the opposition doesn‘t.”

Chung added that the opposition party “does have a good chance of getting elected, but its hunger for power is diminishing. I’d put my money on Park.”

Also impacting the predictions was the possibility that Ahn might not run. Predictions that he would announce his candidacy were down to eight from sixteen in the first survey. A greater number of participants, ten, predicted he would not run. Fifteen said Moon would be the opposition’s presidential candidate, compared to three for Ahn and one for Kim Doo-kwan, governor of South Gyeongsang province.

Based on the judgment that Park is effectively confirmed as the ruling party candidate, experts said the outcome of the election would likely be swayed by the opposition’s candidate selection process.

Pai Chai University professor Kim Wook said, “While it is important who becomes the opposition candidate, it‘s also very important how that happens, so I’m withholding judgment.”

Kim predicted that Park would be favored if the opposition fails to unify around a candidate.

Some participants linked their election forecasts to the results of April‘s general elections.

Seoul National University professor Kang Won-taek said, “With Park Geun-hye facing stagnant support rates and distrust in the New Frontier Party growing on the whole, a general election that leaves the ruling party with a minority would mean a greater chance of victory for the opposition candidate as the initiative in the political situation shifts over to the opposition.”

Korea University professor Hahm Sung-deuk said, “If Moon Jae-in wins in the general election, he has a good chance, but if he doesn’t, then it’s Park Geun-hye.”

 

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

 

Most viewed articles