hankyoreh

but…
DUP chairperson Han Myeong-sook and United Progressive Party co-chairperson Lee Jeong-hee shake hands in a meeting at the National Assembly to negotiate solidarity for next month’s general election. They agreed to conclude the negotiations no later than March 8. (by Lee Jung-woo

By Lee Tae-hee, Staff Writer　

“Frankly, even 130 seats is looking unlikely at this rate.” This was the prediction for the April 11 general election voiced by Democratic United Party (DUP) strategy and publicity office chief Woo Sang-ho at a meeting of the party‘s supreme council Monday night in a hotel conference room in Seoul’s Yeongdeungpo district.

The lips of the other supreme council members seated there were tightly pursed. Woo’s forecast was based on the results of a poll that surveyed residents of major areas in the capital where nominations were confirmed as of last week.

“An opinion poll of major Seoul areas last week showed the DUP with a 32.5% to 33% support rate and the New Frontier Party (NFP, Saenuri Party) with 38.5% to 39%, so the difference was about five to six percentage points,” said a party official.

“After extrapolating that to the country level and factoring in a few other variables, we concluded that we might not be able to get 130 seats,” the official explained.

DUP insiders had been optimistic about the party’s chances of winning more than 130 out of 246 contested seats (54 seats are determined by proportional representation). 130 seats are required to form a parliamentary majority. But recent drops in support and difficulties in the nomination process have led them to draw back their predictions.

The trend was also in evidence in a Hankyoreh poll of major regions in the greater Seoul area. A poll commissioned with the Korea Society Opinion Institute found the NFP candidates leading in Seoul’s Jongno district, where two heavyweights are facing off in the NFP’s Hong Sa-duk and the DUP’s Chung Sye-kyun, and in West Ilsan in Gyeonggi province, where a rematch of former and current female lawmakers is taking place between the NFP’s Kim Young-sun and the DUP’s Kim Hyun-mi.

Particularly painful for the DUP is the 43.0% to 32.3% lead enjoyed by the freshly nominated Hong over Jeong, who has been doing legwork since last year in Jongno, which has traditionally been viewed as a prime political battleground. The district has traditionally leaned toward the ruling party, becoming a veritable citadel for its candidates with Lee Jong-chan, Lee Myung-bak, Chung In-bong, and Park Jin since the 13th National Assembly elections. The only time Jongno voters opted for the opposition candidate came in the 15th National Assembly by-elections, when then-Citizens’ Council (former DUP) candidate Roh Moo-hyun won.

In the recent poll, Kim Young-sun led Kim Hyun-mi by 41.2% to 37.6%, a 3.6 percent difference that was within the 3.7 percentage point margin of error, indicating a close contest. West Ilsan also leans strongly toward the NFP. After Ilsan became an independent election district with the 15th National Assembly, New Korea Party (former NFP) candidate Lee Taek-seok won, with Kim Young-sun picking up victories as a GNP candidate in the 17th and 18th National Assembly elections. Democratic Party candidate Kim Duk-bae won in the 16th National Assembly election.

The DUP expected good results even in such a forbidding district, anticipating that the general elections would develop into a trial of the Lee Myung-bak administration. In order to win more than 130 seats, the party will need over 65 of the 112 in the greater Seoul area. A total of 130 or more can only come with victories or ties in ruling party-leaning areas, but this has yet to pan out.

One noteworthy development shown in the DUP poll was the presence of swing voters in their twenties and older.

A different party official said, “According to five nationwide polls by the party since January, the DUP’s rise dropped off around mid-February.

"We examined it by generation and found most of the defections coming from people in their twenties," the official explained, indicating that the falling support ratings stemmed from nearly half of the party’s support among twenty-somethings disappearing in the space of two months.

"People in their twenties tend strongly to want an opposition party victory, but they’re also quick to become disappointed with politicians," the official said, adding that the defections appeared to be a reaction to the DUP’s inability to make progress with opposition party solidarity or a "nomination revolution."

But the DUP’s polls also reported a rise of two to three percentage points in support for the Unified Progressive Party (UPP) over the same period. The DUP’s loss of support to the UPP has strong implications for the party, since it could mean that a successful alliance with the UPP and a one-on-one battle with the NFP at the national level could brighten its general election prospects.

The NFP is also sensing a recent turnaround from its fretting over a capital region rout after its candidate’s defeat in the Oct. 26 Seoul mayoral by-election. A party official said, "South Koreans are very disappointed with the DUP’s hiring of someone accused of corruption to an important position, and we’re seeing a rise in favorable opinion toward the NFP’s reforms as a result."

"As the general elections draw closer, public opinion is beginning to find a certain equilibrium," the official added.

Some NFP insiders are saying the party can successfully defend around forty of its greater Seoul seats.

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