Tight race expected in April’s general election

Posted on : 2012-03-21 14:09 KST Modified on : 2012-03-21 14:09 KST
Experts from both parties weigh in on upcoming general election battle

By Seong Han-yong, senior staff writer

As political parties complete their nomination processes, interest in the result of the April 11 general election is growing. On Monday, we asked election strategy officials from the New Frontier Party (NFP) and Democratic United Party (DUP) for their election predictions.

“The opposition party handled the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement and the Jeju Gangjeong Village [naval base construction issue] incorrectly, and failed in its early phase of nomination, which undermined its ability to stand in judgment of the current government,” said one NFP official.

“I think we stand a chance, because the DUP is not coming across as an [electable] alternative.” The DUP official said, “We are mainly relying on judgment of the Lee Myung-bak administration and the election alliance among three opposition parties. It won’t be an easy election unless we can come up with groundbreaking policies in support of public livelihood and persuade young people to vote.” Both officials’ understandings of the situation early on in the election battle appear similar.

How will parliamentary seats be distributed? We dealt with a few premises in order to determine this.

Firstly, the ruling and opposition parties have predicted that victory in this election will be decided in the Seoul metropolitan region. Of the 246 constituency seats in the National Assembly, 112 (48 in Seoul, 12 in Incheon and 52 in Gyeonggi province), or more than 45%, are in this area. The NFP predicted that the margin would not be great when it came to seats in the metropolitan region. In other words, the swing phenomenon that came to pass around the time President Roh Moo-hyun’s impeachment in 2004 and during the victory of Lee Myung-bak in 2008, is not apparent this time. The DUP‘s opinion did not differ greatly from that of the NFP. It predicted that it would lead by a ratio of around 3 to 2 in the metropolitan region. In the 2000 general election, too, the Millennium Democratic Party (former DUP) and the Grand National Party (former NFP) won 56 and 40 seats, respectively.

Secondly, the NFP is at an advantage outside the metropolitan region. This is because of the high number of seats in the Yeongnam region, an area traditionally dominated by the NFP. Yeongnam is home to 67 seats: 18 in Busan, six in Ulsan, 16 in South Gyeongsang province, 12 in Daegu and 15 in North Gyeongsang province.

Honam, an area predominated by the DUP, contains 30 seats (eight in Gwangju, 11 in South Jeolla province and 11 in North Jeolla province), while the Chungcheong region contains 25 (six in Daejeon, one in Sejong City, 10 in South Chungcheong province and eight in North Chungcheong province), Gwangwon province nine seats and Jeju Island three. The total number of seats in Honam, Chungcheong, Gangwon province and Jeju Island is 67, the same number as in the Yeongnam region alone.

Analysis by both parties suggests that support for the opposition party in the Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang province regions is weaker than had been expected. DUP officials are forecasting that the party will be able to come away from this area with a maximum of around five seats. In the Chungcheong region, the NFP is expected to make gains thanks to factors such as the influence of party emergency committee chairwoman Park Geun-hye and contention surrounding Sejong City. The power of the Liberty Forward Party (LFP) is not as great as before. A three-way division of votes between the NFP, the DUP and the LFP can be expected. In Gangwon province and Jeju Island, the opposition is expected to end up ahead by narrow margins.

Thirdly, independent candidates are in decline. A large number of pro-ruling party independents, such as the “alliance of pro-Park Geun-hye,” ran in the 2008 election. They have since merged with the NFP. Fourthly, it can be assumed that, among the 54 parliamentary seats filled through proportional representation, the NFP will take around 25 and the DUP and Unified Progressive Party (UPP) the same number together. A survey of party support by one polling body on Monday found the combined total of supporters of the DUP and UPP to correspond exactly to that of the NFP.

According to these premises, it can be expected that the NFP will win 145 seats: 45 in the metropolitan region, 62 in Yeongnam, none Honam, eight in Chungcheong, four in Gangwon province, one in Jeju Island and 25 through proportional representation. The combined number of seats for the DUP and the UPP, who have successfully formed an opposition alliance, can be forecast as 142: 67 in the metropolitan region, five in Yeongnam, 30 in Honam, eight in Chungcheong, five in Gangwon province, two in Jeju Island and 25 through proportional representation. Since independent candidates have been excluded here, the actual number of seats won by each party will be lower, but in any case, it is highly likely that the NFP will be the number one party in the National Assembly even if the opposition wins by a ratio of 3 to 2 in the metropolitan region.

Of course, this calculation is also based on the premise that the NFP put up a good fight in the metropolitan and Yeongnam regions. One expert with extensive experience working in strategy for the DUP predicted, “When the election battle begins in earnest, passing judgment on the Lee Myung-bak administration will become all the rage, unlike the current atmosphere, and unified opposition candidates will get a boost.”

 

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