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Age distribution of voters according to candidate 1. 2010 Seoul mayoral election(Oh Se-hoon/Han Myeong-sook/Other) 2. 2011 parliamentary by-election in Bundang B district(Kang Jae-seop/Sohn Hak-kyu/Other)　 3. 2011 Seoul mayoral election(Na Kyung-won/Park Won-soon/Other)

By Seong Han-yong, political correspondent

An election variable is defined as “a changeable factor that influences the outcome of an election.” It now appears that turnout will be the deciding variable in the general elections to be held on April 11.

The higher the turnout, the better the opposition’s chances will be. Voters could be motivated to vote out the current administration due to dissatisfaction with its various misdeeds while in power, including recent allegations of illegal surveillance of civilians.

The turnout in the 2000 general election was 57.2%: the conservatives won 133 seats and the liberals won 115. In the 2004 general election, the turnout shot up to 60.6% amid the backlash over the impeachment of President Roh Moo-hyun. Roh’s Uri Party won 152 seats, and the Grand National Party (GNP, since February known as the New Frontier Party) won 121. In 2008, by contrast, the turnout was 46.1%, the lowest in history for a Korean national election. The GNP took 153 seats, and the Democratic Party 81.

The trends were consistent with local elections. In 2002, the turnout for local elections was 48.9% and the GNP won. In 2006, the turnout was 51.6% and the GNP won again. In 2010, the turnout rose to 54.5% and the opposition won.

The easiest explanation for this phenomenon is that liberal voters don‘t turn out in as large numbers as conservative voters.

Turnout generally varies according to voters’ ages. The older people are, the more likely they are to vote. If the overall turnout rises, it is because more young voters are heading to the ballot box.

Data from the local election on June 2, 2010, shows that voters aged 19 years old accounted for 1.7% of registered voters but only 1.5% ballots cast. The ratios of those eligible to vote to those that actually voted was 17.9% to 13.4% for those in their 20s and 21.4% to 17.7% for those in their 30s. In other words, young voters were underrepresented relative to their share of the population, because of their low turnout. The same ratio for those in their 40s was 22.4% to 22.5%, showing little difference between share of total eligible voters and actual voters. Voters in their 50s, by contrast, accounted for no more than 17.2% of all those eligible to vote, but 20.2% of those who voted. Among those in their 60s, the ratio stood at 19.4% to 24.7%.

Election statistics indicate that the overall turnout increases when there is an unprecedented rise in the turnout among young voters in their 20s and 30s. The turnout at local elections rose to 51.6% in 2006 and 54.5% in 2010. The increases in turnouts among 19-year-old voters, those in their early 20s and those in their late 20s, however, were far above the total increase however, clocking 37.9% and 47.4%, 38.3% and 45.8%, and 29.6% and 37.1%, respectively. The higher turnout among those in their early 20s than those in their late 20s was due to votes by those performing national service. At any rate, the successive losses by the ruling party at the June 2, 2010 local election and 2011 by-elections were the result of increased turnout by young voters, who tend to support the opposition.

Generational voting first became apparent in 2002, when President Roh Moo-hyun was elected. Exit polls conducted by broadcasters at the time showed that 59.0% of voters in their 20s and 59.3% of those in their 30s voted for Roh. Support among these age groups for Lee Hoi-chang was no more than 34.9% and 34.2%, respectively. Among those in their 40s, support for Roh and Lee was similar, clocking 48.1% and 47.9%. The Roh-Lee ratio was 40.1% to 57.9% among quinquagenarians and 34.9% to 63.5% among sexagenarians: the inverse to those in their 20s and 30s.

The day after that election brought scenes of young people in Seoul restaurants chatting excitedly, while old people ate in silence. The April 11 general election is just a few days away and the intense battle is continuing right up to the eleventh hour. In Seoul, important constituencies are showing no signs of clear leaders.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]