hankyoreh

By Kim Jong-chul, senior staff writer

Wednesday’s election for the 19th National Assembly has dual significance: a retrospective one, as the trial of four years of the current government, and as a look to the future, a prelude to the presidential election looming at year’s end. The outcome appears likely to provide some idea of the future course of governance, as well as clues about the presidential contest to come.

The ruling and opposition parties wrapped up their campaigning Tuesday with midnight calls for their supporters to go out to the polls.

Speaking at a press conference at the New Frontier Party’s Yeouido headquarters, party leader Park Geun-hye declared, “It is up to the people of South Korea whether the country will choose confusion and division or open up future hope.”

“Give the New Frontier Party (NFP) the power to throw the brakes on the dangerous runaway train of an enormous opposition party,” Park urged.

Meanwhile, Democratic United Party (DUP) chairperson Han Myeong-sook likened voting to food, speaking at an appearance in Seoul’s Songpa neighborhood.

“When you vote for good people, when you vote for the people who can promote working class livelihoods, your household gets a delicious meal,” she said.

“I want all of you to come out to the voting booths and create authorities who win,” Han added, before including a “judgment frame” for the election by encouraging voters to “put [the Lee Myung-bak administration] on trial.”

As many as 30 to 40 districts around the country have thin margins of less than five percentage points separating the ruling and opposition party challenges on election eve, leaving the results unpredictable. In particular, the outcome in the contested regions appears likely to be determined by the impact of variables that have come up during the election campaign, including scandals over the illegal surveillance of civilians by the Prime Minister’s Office, controversial remarks by candidate Kim Yong-min, and a sexual assault and murder case that was mishandled by police in Suwon.

The primary focus of attention is whether the elections will bring about the first majority opposition National Assembly in 12 years. The last time this happened was with the 16th National Assembly elections in April 2000, when the ruling Democratic Party’s fell five seats short of a majority.

In the 2004 general election, then-ruling Uri Party (former DUP) earned a majority due largely to a backlash over the impeachment of then-President Roh Moo-hyun, while the Grand National Party (former NFP) rode its presidential victory into a 153-seat majority in the 2008 general election.

The NFP is already viewing this outcome as a fait accompli, as evidence by Park‘s remarks about the “runaway train of an enormous opposition party.” But the DUP is worried that the NFP could easily come out on top, pointing to the massive rallying of conservatives in the late stages of the election campaign.

A ruling party minority would put political initiative in the hands of an opposition that has formed a political alliance with consolidated general election candidates around the country, and lend momentum to the establishment of a political base for an opposition victory in December’s presidential election. In this scenario, the Unified Progressive Party would end up with decisive influence in governance, a possibility that has observers predicting progressive issues such as economic democracy and increased welfare services as central political themes.

The opposition is also seen as very likely to follow through on parliamentary audits, hearings, and special prosecutor investigations of the civilian surveillance, railroading of the Four Major Rivers Project, and the selection process for general programming television networks when the 19th National Assembly opens its first session in June. If this happens, it would inevitably hasten the lame duckification of the Lee administration.

Meanwhile, an outcome that gives the NFP a majority with around 140 seats would send the ruling party straight into preparations for the presidential election, with Park Geun-hye the focus. The general view among observers is that the window of opportunity would close quickly for non-mainstream NFP candidates like lawmaker Chung Mong-joon and Gyeonggi Governor Kim Moon-soo, as well as outsiders like former Prime Minister Chung Un-chan.

Analysts said that so long as the result is not a rout leaving the NFP with around 120 seats, the situation is likely to work in favor of the presidential chances of Park, who turned the party from a “Lee Myung-bak party” to her own through the nomination process. But even a “good fight” that produces 130 seats is very likely to raise questions about her presidential competitiveness if the party fails to win 40 seats in the greater Seoul area, where 112 seats are up for grabs.

If the NFP does come out as the majority party, it would also mean the collapse of Han Myeong-sook’s leadership and a new convention.

For the opposition, Moon Jae-in, who is expected to win in Busan, appears likely to gain strength as a presidential challenger. Another two or three seats besides his own and that of Saha-B candidate Cho Kyoung-tae in the Busan area would give substantial momentum. And even if this doesn’t come to pass, observers said he is likely to move ahead as a leading opposition presidential challenger by dint of having broken through in an NFP stronghold.

A victory for Sohn Hak-kyu’s proxy in Gyeonggi’s Bundang-B district also appears likely to highlight the former Democratic Party chairman‘s presidential competitiveness again.

And with Ahn Chul-soo keeping to the sidelines apart from calls for voting, analysts said he stands to gain little in freedom to move from a DUP majority.

Ahn, software tycoon and possible presidential candidate, appears very likely to decide on whether to run after seeing how the NFP and opposition presidential candidate selection proceeds after the election.

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