hankyoreh

By Sung Han-yong, political correspondent

The April 11 general election has concluded with an unexpected victory for the New Frontier Party led by Park Geun-hye. Park’s strategy distancing herself from President Lee Myung-bak by abandoning the Grand National Party name and persistently campaigning has succeeded. With all votes counted, the New Frontier Party (NFP) has a majority of 152 seats.

As recently as the end of last year, the ruling party was facing a political crisis so great that they feared winning fewer than 100 seats in yesterday’s general election. The party was plagued by a steady stream of corruption scandals. Increased inequality made the conservatives appear out of touch with the economic reality faced by South Koreans. The use of illegal surveillance tactics and gagging of the media reminded many of the country’s old dictatorial governments.

Park Geun-hye is almost single-handedly responsible for changing the party‘s fortunes. At a time of crisis, she formed a committee with unlikely individuals such as Kim Jong-in, Lee Sang-don and Lee Jun-seok. Park also made clear that she was different from Lee Myung-bak. She changed the party’s platform to “a promise to the people” and resolved to achieve economic democratization.

The reason voters accepted Park’s political message, according to analysts, was because of the image of “principle and credibility” that she has built up until now. They interpreted the power shift from Lee to Park as a regime change of sorts. Park, while being a member of the ruling party, kept a distance from Lee at several critical moments, including on the Sejong City issue, a controversial plan to relocate government offices to a city south of Seoul.

How will the political situation play out after the election? It appears the NFP will calmly prepare for the presidential election. Park has come away from this election with the additional benefit of having gained status as the only viable presidential candidate within the current ruling camp.

There are clear limits to the expansion of her support base, however, as shown by her party’s poor showing in the greater Seoul area. Her path to the presidency will not be an entirely smooth one. Park is limited by the fact that she lacks imaginative policies on the economy. It is therefore expected that she will now concentrate on developing her policies.

It appears that Park’s unchallenged supremacy within the NFP will be maintained for the foreseeable future. The NFP must immediately dissolve its emergency committee and choose a new leadership at a party convention. The consensus within the party is that its new leader must be to Park’s approval.

The opposition, which has missed a golden opportunity to gain power in parliament, now has nothing to say. Its defeat was due to its lack of competence. The Democratic United Party (DUP), in particular, showed a lacks of leadership strategy and ability all at once. It spent the entire general election in a fluster, starting with the scandal over its candidate nomination process. Calls for resignation of leading figures, including chairperson Han Myoeng-sook, are expected to come from in and outside the party.

The Unified Progressive Party (UPP), secured several meaningful parliamentary seats but now faces the difficult task of reorganizing its leadership following the election.

The DUP and UPP are expected to move forward with plans for a coalition government aimed at the presidential election at the end of this year, based on their experience with allying for the general election. Their concern, however, is the lack of a candidate that can outrun the apparently unassailable Park Geun-hye. Competition between provisional candidates such as Moon Jae-in, Sohn Hak-gyu and Kim Du-gwan is expected to flare up.

Also of interest is the question of how the 19th National Assembly, which begins on May 30, will be composed. The current law on the assembly stipulates that the speaker must be chosen by lawmakers. A lengthy fight over the selection of the speaker and the appointment of the chairs of standing committees is expected.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]