hankyoreh

dean of SNU Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology

By Lee Ji-eun, staff writer

Who will beat the ’Queen of election‘? The April 11th general election made obvious that the opposition lacks a competitor for Park Geun-hye.

Many people are talking about both Moon Jae-in and Ahn Chul-soo as potential candidates, with Ahn apparently the real center of attention. Although Ahn said, “I don’t need to run if the established politicians are doing a good job” in a lecture at Seoul National University just before the general election, he has reason to run for president if we consider the opposition presidential candidates to be ‘established politicians’. Since the frontrunner in the opposition, Moon Jae-in doesn’t enjoy overwhelming support, it may be impossible for the opposition to win the election without Ahn.

Moon’s general election experience is generally considered to have been a ‘half success’. This is because he marked a lot higher numbers in the party’s share of the vote than in the history of general and presidential election even if the number of seats did not reach the expectation in the battle of the Nakdong River Belt. In Busan and Gyeongnam province (40 seats) where he led, the opposition had 2 seats from Busan (Sasang-gu constituency Moon Jae-in and Saha-gu Eul Cho Gyeong-tae) and 1 seat from Gyeongnam (Gimhae-A, Min Hong-cheol). His biggest goal was double digit. In the 2008 18th general election, Democratic Party had 2 seats and Democratic Labor Party had 2 seats.

On the other hand, in Busan, the opposition’s share of the vote reached 40.2 %. (DUP 31.78%+Unified Progressive Party 8.42%) This result came from New Frontier Party (NFP) leader Park Geun-hye’s 5 visits in Busan. Compared with the result of Democratic Party (former DUP, 12.7%) and Democratic Labor Party (8.1%) in the 18th general election, this shows ‘new possibility’. If Moon runs as the opposition parties’ sole candidate in the presidential election, it is possible for him to receive 40% of support from Busan. Former President Roh Moo-hyun was elected with 29.9% of support from Busan in the 2002 presidential election and in the 2007 presidential election, Millennium Democratic Party candidate Chung Dong-young just gained only 13.5%.

On the night of the general election, Moon posted on Twitter, “I will return with new politics, fair politics and big politics.” “I will do everything in my power to win the presidential election and turnover of power” wrote Moon.

Is Moon a strong enough candidate to win the presidency? His opponent Park is very strong, earning her the nickname ‘mighty possessor’ through this general election. It seems difficult for Moon to confront her on his own. This is the reason why speculation about Ahn refuses to go away. A reelected member of the DUP said “Moon should show freshness in the National Assembly, but his political power is not yet known.”

Yoon Hi- Woong, head of research and analysis at the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) said, “Although Moon did pass the preliminary test, his scores were below expected, which makes it difficult for him to stand out. The progressive groups’ interest in Ahn cannot but rise.”

He added “In this general election, the current situation of increased distrust of established politicians actually helped Ahn”. In December’s presidential election, the forward-looking voting tendency, rather than voters punishing the administration, will strengthen the theory of necessity of Ahn‘s candidacy.

After the assessment that Moon’s ambition theory is showing its limit came out, others in the DUP are watching for a chance. Since Moon’s advocates, the pro-Roh Moo-hyun group, is confronted by responsibility of losing the presidential election, the competition between runners could intensify. The previous chairman Sohn Hak-gyu wrote on Twitter the day after the election “Our people are frightened. The exterior may be burning, but the interior is freezing cold. We need to search for our people’s heart. We start again now.”

Kim Doo-Gwan the governor of Kyeongnam, exceptional as a metropolitan councilor, showed his interest in participating in the presidential election by commenting on the result of the general election.

Despite spreading ambition among candidates, some believe that this year‘s presidential election will be no different from 2007. With candidates from DUP and Unified Progressive Party (UPP) receiving similar number of votes, no one is standing out from the competition. One of the reelected members of the National Assembly from the DUP said, “Only by Ahn joining the race for opposition candidacy can the opposition parties gain votes from both neutrals and rational conservatives.” This means that the existing candidates from opposition parties stand little chance to attract either the masses’ attention or more votes. Political commentator Lee Chul-hee said, “with the loss in general election and Ahn declaring independence, it is hard for members of the opposition parties to gain a higher support rate.”

Park Won-soon’s Seoul mayoral by-election victory in October 2011 is a precedent that could repeat itself. At that time, DUP and Democratic Labor Party (the then UPP)’s candidates Park Young-sun and Choi Kyu-yeop held a primary with Park Won-soon, a civic activist, to select a unified candidate who would represent the opposition.

Another possibility is having the primary elections twice. First, representatives of DUP and UPP hold a primary and the selected candidate holds a second primary with Ahn. Ahn joining the race as a DUP candidate is one other possibility. However, considering Ahn‘s stance or DUP’s miserable state after its failure in the general elections, the possibility is low.

Regarding the situations of the opposition parties, open primary is a rational choice due to its effectiveness in arousing interest and participation from the masses. The opposition parties have successful experience in gaining attention and participation-selecting each party’s candidate for the Seoul mayoral election through citizen’s participation and choosing the DUP representative through mobile voting. Yoon Hee-woong, a senior analyst at a polling agency, argues, “The opposition parties are able to gain public attention through competition. In such a context, the Saenuri Party is at a disadvantage of having only one candidate, Park Geun-hye, and the crowd may lose interest.” Political pundits point out that there is a high possibility of Ahn running but he could also lend his support to one of the opposition parties‘ candidates as he did in the Seoul mayoral election.

Ahn’s decision counts for the most. If he decides to run, people will focus on when and how he will debut. Until now, Ahn has emphasized his role as a catalyst for political change-“to bring tension and competition to current politicians.” He explained the possibility of him running in the presidential election as “a task assigned from citizens rather than a decision made by oneself.” During general elections, Ahn showed strong presence by encouraging votes through lectures and videos Youtube.

However, some argue that Ahn’s way of influencing politics from the outside is not as effective as it used to be. Ahn’s unprecedented character is not “new” anymore and masses are losing interest. Statistics show that while Ahn gained 54.5% in the 2010 local election there was a slight decline of 54.3% in the general election. Moreover, a public opinion poll made by Gallup Korea on 800 voters, right after the general election show counter results to the poll made before the election. Ahn is nudged out from the two-way race with Park Geun-hye by 35.9% to 45.1%. Ahn had won in most of the surveys made before the election. The difference on a two-way race between Ahn and Park (16.3%) is smaller than that of Moon Jae-in (31.4%) and Park (47.7%). However, in the multi way race Ahn only scored 16.0%, which is the lowest of the three with Park (37.0%) coming first and Moon following second with 17.0%.

Whatever the situation, it is most certain that the opposition parties‘ general election loss has opened more political space for Ahn. The day following general elections, stocks related to Park Geun-hye went up. Stocks related to Ahn, which have been declining in value for a while, have also had a huge leap. Stocks related to Moon declined in value.

There is a huge possibility in the re-growth of Ahn’s support if he decides to run for president. Kim Jong-bae, a political commentator says, “The right timing [of the declaration for running the presidential election] is the key point.” Roh Hoe-chan, spokesman of UPP, says, “Ahn has to decide both on which ship, at what time he wants to go on aboard. It should be ‘his’ choice,” and that “choosing one’s path by analyzing situations is not what a future presidential candidate should do. He should quickly choose his party so that the opposition parties can also get ready.”

Unfortunately, it is unlikely that Ahn will make a decision before June. Ahn will be busy giving lectures at universities and writing his essay, which will be published in May or June.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]