hankyoreh

By Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporter

Survey results show Park Geun-hye pulling away from opposition party challengers ahead of December’s presidential election.

In a survey conducted May 26-27 by the Hankyoreh and the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI), the New Frontier Party (NFP) leader came in first with 43.0% of participants saying they’d vote for Park if the election was held the next day. This was a 2.4 percent increase from a similar survey last month.

Software mogul Ahn Chul-soon polled at 22.6%, down 1.2 percentage points. The Democratic United Party’s (DUP) Moon Jae-in received 11.1%, the same as last month, while other ruling and opposition party challengers all placed below 3%.

One noteworthy findings was a 1.7% rating for South Gyeongsang province Gov. Kim Doo-kwan, who received just 0.6% of votes last month. This rise puts him roughly even with two other potential opposition challengers from the DUP, former chairman Sohn Hak-kyu (1.9%) and senior adviser Chung Dong-young (1.5%).

Analysts said Park’s solid support levels were most likely the result of cohesion among conservatives. In particular, she drew a 72.4% support rating among respondents who described themselves as “conservative,” a gain of 11% from April.

KSOI chief analyst Yoon Hee-woong said, “It looks like the recent scandal with the United Progressive Party has given voters a stronger preference for someone stable and tested.”

Park had a 9.8 percent lead over Ahn in a hypothetical two-way race, earning 53.5% to his 43.7%. She was also found holding him off in the greater Seoul area, including the city itself, where she led 51.1% to 46.5%, as well as Gyeonggi-Incheon, where she was up 52.0% to 45.0%.

But she did show some vulnerability among younger voters in the so-called “20-40 generation,” trailing Ahn by over 12 percent overall and by 19.1 percent among respondents in their thirties, 58.4% of whom favored Ahn.

Meanwhile, she enjoyed a nearly twofold lead over Moon in a two-way contest, earning 61.0% of votes to his 33.5%. In particular, she drew support from 38.2% of Honam respondents, as well as 26.3% of self-described DUP supporters.

One salient discovery in the two-way contest survey results was the high level of support for political outsider Ahn rather than Moon among both self-professed DUP supporters and Honam respondents. Ahn was favored by 68.2% of Honam respondents and 75.0% of DUP supporters in a two-way race against Park, compared to just 53.6% and 68.0% for Moon, respectively.

“Right now, it seems like Honam voters view Ahn as more of an alternative than the DUP’s potential candidates,” said Yoon.

Respondents were fairly even on whether Moon did the right thing in announcing his idea for a coalition administration with Ahn, with 43.8% viewing the idea positively and 39.1% viewing it negatively. Responses were clearly divided according to the respondent’s party preference, with 67.7% of DUP supporters saying Moon’s decision was a good idea and 58.9% of NFP supporters viewing it as a mistake.

The survey took place through random digit dialing with equal parts landline and mobile phone numbers. The sample error was ±3.5 percentage points with a 95% confidence level.

　

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