hankyoreh

By Hwang Joon-bum, staff reporter

Recent polls results show a narrowing in the support gap between potential presidential contenders Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo.

The poll of 1,000 adults across the country was conducted by broadcaster KBS on June 23 and 24. The results found that Park led Ahn in a two-candidate race by 47.5% to 44.3%, a close fight that falls within the poll’s ±3.1 percentage point margin of error (with a 95% confidence level).

Another poll, conducted by MBN and Hangil Research on June 22 and 23, also showed Park and Ahn with respective support levels of 45.8% and 43.8. Realmeter’s June 22 survey, meanwhile, placed Ahn ahead by a whisker, with 48.0% to Park‘s 47.1% with a ±2.5 percentage point margin of error.

Ahn was overwhelmingly ahead of Park until March this year. The tables were turned after Park led the New Frontier Party (NFP) to a parliamentary majority in April’s general election and saw her national profile boosted as a result.

Park’s supporters claim there has been no change that warrants new conclusions. “Park is maintaining a lead despite being attacked by all the other election candidates,” said one poll expert from Park’s camp on June 26. Another of Park’s advisers commented, “Park has faltered because she has not been active recently. Things will change if she starts moving properly.”

Some poll experts claim, however, that the change is due to the waning of the “general election effect” following the NFP’s overwhelming victory under Park‘s leadership at the general election. Park has since then acquired a reputation as a poor communicator in the dispute over rules for the NFP primary.

“Park’s comments that ‘those with dubious views of [the legitimacy of] the [South Korean] state must not become lawmakers’ has probably had an adverse effect,” said one former high-ranking NFP official. Yun Hui-ung, head of poll analysis at Korea Society Opinion Institute, said, “This can’t be regarded as a crisis for Park’s support level. But the key issue is how she now goes about raising it by embracing supporters of other ruling party candidates, such as Kim Moon-soo, Chung Mong-joon and Lee Jae-oh, along with moderate voters.”

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